The article below has been prepared in a simpler language, based on data and shared visuals dated December 21, 2024. It also includes a simple forecast (projection) for the coming week and a few important points to consider in the economic calendar. This content does not constitute investment advice and is provided for informational purposes only.
1. General Market Summary
Information from the Coin Advice panel shows that the market is currently in a “stable” state (Stagnant State). Experts emphasize that caution should be exercised when opening a Long or Short position during this period. In summary:
Market Risk: -5.2 (uptrend)
24 Hour Change: 13.1%
ADX: 39.38 (indicates high trend strength)
On the other hand, the indicator is in the "Risk-Off" position. In other words, we are going through a period where market participants may be a little more anxious about taking risks. Taking into account volatility (price fluctuations) seems especially important in this period.
1.1. Fast Risers (“Hot” and “Winners”)
Hot: HOOK, WIF, SKL, ORDI, TON
For example, HOOK has increased by approximately 10% in the last 24 hours.
Winners: MOCA (66.8%), ZEN (47.9%), COW (45.7%), AGLD (37.8%), SPX (33.5%)
These coins are showing rapid growth in the short term. Investors who have their eyes on these assets should be prepared for high-yield opportunities as well as equally risky fluctuations.
1.2. Losers
FARTCOIN: -19.4%
BTCDOM: -4.2%
APT: -0.7%
IO and 1000000MOG: Almost horizontal
The sharp declines experienced in coins such as FARTCOIN in particular remind us how high volatility can be. Therefore, it is important to do research on each coin separately before investing.
1.3. Advice List
AERGUSDT: “SELL” signal for the short term. It is important to follow the specified target (TP) and stop loss (SL) levels.
PNUTUSDT: “BUY” signal. Again, attention should be paid to target and stop loss levels.
The signals here provide insight into general market movements, but are not definitive recommendations. Each investor should calculate their own risk and follow current news.
2. BTC/USDT (Bitcoin) Status
2.1. Daily Chart (1D)
Final Price: $98,668
Market Status: Neutral
Support: $93,679 - $94,620 (approx.)
Resistance: 100.844 - 101.857 USD (approximately)
Next 3-Day Price Predictions: 101.911 → 102.469 → 103.031 USD
The BTC price has recently experienced a strong rise, reaching 98 thousand from around 50 thousand levels. The daily chart shows that the 93-94 thousand range is an important support. These levels stand out as a region where the price can hold on if it falls. On the other hand, if the 100-102 thousand band is broken, the upward movement may continue.
2.2. 4 Hour Chart (4H)
Final Price: $98,668
Support: $98,815 - $99,808
Resistance: 102.136 - 103.163 USD
Short Term Forecast: 100.638 → 100.618 → 100.597 USD
On the 4-hour chart, BTC presents a slightly more “indecisive” outlook. In the short term, the 98-99 thousand range can be tested. If the price relaxes into this range, it can be considered an opportunity to buy; however, if support is broken, lower levels can also be seen. Conversely, if the 102-103 thousand region is exceeded, a new rise in BTC may be opened.
3. BTC Dominance (BTCDOM) Status
Bitcoin Dominance (BTCDOM) shows the share of BTC in the total cryptocurrency market. A decrease in this ratio could mean that altcoins are gaining strength relative to BTC or that investors are turning to altcoins.
3.1. 4 Hour Chart (4H)
Last Price: 54.5
Support: 52.42 - 52.94
Resistance: 54.04 - 54.58
Prediction: Negative
On the 4-hour chart, BTCDOM is around 54.5, but a “Negative” expectation stands out. If we see closings below 54, we could see a week where BTC dominance declines. This could mean that altcoins will come to the fore.
3.2. Daily Chart (1D)
Last Price: 54
Support: 50.13 - 50.63
Resistance: 56.41 - 56.97
Prediction: Negative
On the daily chart, there is also a strong resistance area at 56-57 levels. If BTCDOM cannot break this area, dominance may loosen for a while. This may have a positive impact on the altcoin market in the short term.
4. USDT Dominance (USDT.D)
USDT Dominance (USDT.D) shows how much stablecoin (USDT) investors hold. An increase in this ratio is usually interpreted as risk aversion (investors sell their coins and hold on to USDT), while a decrease is interpreted as an increase in risk appetite (investors exit USDT and buy coins).
4.1. Daily Chart (1D)
Final Price: 3.99
Support: 3.50 - 3.54
Resistance: 3.79 - 3.83
Prediction: Negative
USDT.D has fallen from highs to 3.99. There is support around 3.50. If it falls to this support, we can see that the market is generally “moving towards crypto assets.”
4.2. 4 Hour Chart (4H)
Last Price: 4.04
Support: 3.95 - 3.99
Resistance: 4.03 - 4.07
Prediction: Negative
If the 4.03 - 4.07 band is not exceeded in the short term, USDT demand may decrease again. This may mean that there will be more money flow into cryptocurrencies (BTC, altcoins).
5. Possible Scenarios
The Rising Scenario (Bullish)
If BTC manages to break the 100-102 thousand resistance, 103 thousand and above can be tested.
If BTCDOM continues to fall for a while, altcoins may experience short-term rapid increases.
If USDT.D cannot hold on to the resistance zone, risk appetite in the market will increase and coin prices may continue to rise.
Static / Horizontal Scenario (Sideways)
BTC fluctuates between 98-100k, giving no clear directional signal.
Some altcoins may show strong movement while others may remain sideways.
USDT.D does not change much, some investors wait in the coin, some in the stablecoin.
Fall Scenario (Bearish)
BTC pulls back towards the support zone of 93-94 thousand. If it breaks here, even harder declines are possible.
BTCDOM may recover slightly, causing a sell-off in the altcoin market.
USDT.D is rising again, indicating that investors are starting to avoid risk.
6. Mini Projection for the Week Ahead
In the coming week, several important headlines in terms of the economic calendar can be followed:
US Nonfarm Payrolls Data (NFP): This data generally increases volatility in global markets. It can also create short-term fluctuations on the crypto side.
Inflation Figures (CPI, CPI, etc.): As inflation data from major economies such as the US or Europe are released, investors can make quick purchases and sales in the crypto market with expectations of an “interest rate hike” or “monetary policy change.”
Central Bank Statements: Possible comments or decisions of major central banks such as the FED and ECB may also positively or negatively affect risk appetite.
Short Term Forecast:
The BTC price getting stuck around $100,000 could create a “wait-and-see” atmosphere in the market until economic data is released.
If there is a negative news flow, the downward scenario may accelerate; in the opposite case, the resistance is broken and the rise may continue.
7. Final Evaluation
The cryptocurrency market is currently fluctuating between neutral and volatile.
BTC is approaching a key resistance area.
BTC Dominance could provide an opportunity for altcoins with a possible decline.
If USDT Dominance gets stuck in the resistance zone, risk appetite may revive.
In light of all this information, investors should do their own risk management well for December 21, 2024 and beyond, and should especially use tools such as stop-loss before uncertain economic data. In your trading strategies, it is important to closely follow fundamental data and global economic developments as well as technical indicators.
Let's summarize
For BTC, the 100-102 thousand band is the critical resistance, the 93-94 thousand band is the critical support.
BTCDOM decline could pave the way for altcoins.
USDT.D is in the high resistance zone; if not broken, the market may continue to take risks.
The Economic Calendar (inflation, employment, central bank decisions, etc.) can fluctuate the crypto market.
Conclusion: Prices can change quickly, so keeping a close eye on both the technical analysis and news flow of the market will always be the best way to take precautions against possible surprise fluctuations.