In the past 24 hours, altcoins have seen the largest declines, with LTC once dropping to $86.5. In fact, at the time of writing, the price of Litecoin has rebounded to $96, showing a slight increase of 4.72% over the last 24 hours.
Despite the recent drop in LTC prices, long-term holders of LTC remain optimistic and expect further increases.
78% of long-term Litecoin addresses remain bullish.
78% of Litecoin addresses have held LTC for over a year. These addresses have continuously accumulated during the bear market and sold near price peaks.
Although there has been an increase in long-term holders selling in previous cycles, this cycle is different.
In this cycle, the long-term holdings of LTC have slightly decreased. However, compared to previous cycles, this decline is not significant. This indicates that there are fewer long-term holders selling LTC compared to previous bull markets.
As a result, many holders expect prices to rise further as they are still waiting for the peak of the current cycle. This indicates that long-term holders are optimistic.
Litecoin repeats the post-2020 election pattern.
Analyzing the price trend of the LTC/USD pair in 2020 and the recent 2024 data reveals interesting similarities, further supporting long-term holders.
Both periods showed significant volatility before and after the US elections, accompanied by substantial price increases.
At the end of 2020, the price of Litecoin rose from around $60, peaking above $160 in early 2021.
The pattern for Q4 2024 is similar to the rapid price increase seen after elections, indicating potential for further price increases.
Historically, these election-related rebounds have seen significant increases during the New Year period. If the current pattern holds, Litecoin may break through the $200 mark in early 2025.
As 2024 approaches its end, strong buy signals and increased trading volume are similar to the situation in 2020.
This not only indicates the cyclicality of Litecoin but also highlights the impact of broader market sentiment during elections.
This indicates that Litecoin may be positioning itself for another increase, as seen previously.
What does the LTC chart suggest?
Despite the lower sell volume from long-term holders compared to other cycles and their continued optimism, the overall market remains bearish.
Therefore, we can see this bearish sentiment as most investors hold short positions. The long/short ratio indicates that those holding short positions are dominating the market. This means that most traders expect prices to fall.
Additionally, large holders are also bearish, continuously reducing inflows into LTC, with net inflows of Litecoin from large holders decreasing from 384,520 to 21,890.
This means outflows have exceeded inflows for four consecutive days.
Finally, for the past 12 days, sellers have dominated the market. The continued decline in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) proves the dominance of sellers. The RSI fell from 71 to 40, approaching the oversold region.
In summary, while long-term holders are optimistic, retail traders are not. Therefore, the market is experiencing short-term negative sentiment. If this sentiment persists, LTC may drop to $91.47.
However, if the bullish sentiment of long-term holders spreads to the entire market, LTC will reclaim the $140 level.