In the last analysis mentioned last night, the closing price of Bitcoin's reactive rise did not reach 95600, only reaching 95205. Therefore, those who entered the market on Saturday and Sunday should be happy.
Bitcoin is close to the 98K level. Currently, the entire market has not created a completely positive and optimistic atmosphere. With the arrival of the weekend, Bitcoin's price trend is gradually stabilizing, forming a relatively smooth path. At this point, we should decisively refrain from taking action and not be confused by the misleading appearances created by market fluctuations. If the previously expected price touches the resistance level and is unable to continue rising, or if it falls to the support level and finds support, I will operate according to my previous analysis.
Based on a comprehensive judgment of various factors, I hold a bearish attitude towards Bitcoin's price trend. Currently, I am in a wait-and-see state, mainly to prevent a sudden sharp pullback after Bitcoin's reactive rise. Of course, those who fear missing out can open a small position.
From the perspective of price range judgment, when Bitcoin's price is above 98K, it can be considered that the market is in a relatively favorable positive trend. Once the price falls below 95K, it indicates that the market situation has turned unfavorable, and I don’t need to say what to do next.
If the key support level of Bitcoin at 92k is effectively broken (not a false break), there is a high probability that it will continue to decline to seek a new bottom price level. In this process, those who previously went long may choose to close their positions and cut losses due to market pressure.
I will strictly manage my trading itch based on the key resistance levels of 98K, 95K, and 92K. Specifically, if Bitcoin successfully breaks through 98K, I will extract 75% of the profits from the most recent short position that is in profit, while setting a breakeven stop loss below the initial entry point to lock in some profits and prevent sudden price surges. If the price subsequently falls below 95K, or even further down to 93K, I will be more resolute in maintaining my short position and will not easily change my established strategy.
Additionally, based on market data and trading model analysis, the cumulative strong liquidation area for long positions in Bitcoin is roughly between 85000 and 83000. Within this range, market trading liquidity is relatively strong, and we should closely monitor when major exchanges will start buying in this range, as it could have a significant impact on future price movements.
What needs to be emphasized is that for Bitcoin and ETH, if their prices rise to the predetermined level for opening long positions, I will immediately activate a swing trading strategy. Even if I start buying only after the price has already risen by 5%, I will not regret it because the upward fluctuations of Bitcoin usually do not have a significant impact on the altcoin market. Therefore, in this case, engaging in swing trading still has certain profit opportunities and operational space.
