#比特币市场波动观察

$BTC In 2024, the Bitcoin market showcased its inherent high volatility characteristics. Market analysis indicates that the Bitcoin price surged rapidly at the beginning of the year, breaking historical highs, partly due to investor expectations for Bitcoin ETFs and the impending Bitcoin halving event. However, after reaching a certain peak, the Bitcoin price experienced a noticeable correction, which is related to the market digesting these positive news and the adjustment of investor sentiment. According to market feedback, the price formed an important support range between $94,100 and $96,500, while significant resistance levels were noted around $103,600 to $105,500 and near $108,900.

The macroeconomic environment also had a significant impact on Bitcoin prices. Global economic policies, particularly the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and management of inflation expectations, directly influenced investor preferences. During times of increased economic uncertainty, Bitcoin is often viewed as a hedge asset, driving prices up. However, once market expectations stabilize or safer investment options emerge, Bitcoin's appeal as a safe-haven asset may diminish, leading to price declines.

Changes in the regulatory environment are another influencing factor. At the beginning of 2024, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the Bitcoin spot ETF, marking an increase in Bitcoin's acceptance in mainstream financial markets, but also raising issues of regulatory uncertainty. Different countries have varying attitudes towards cryptocurrencies, ranging from extreme welcome to strict restrictions, resulting in market volatility. This is particularly true for countries like China, which were once centers for Bitcoin mining, as policy changes in such nations have a direct impact on the global Bitcoin network's hash rate and price.

In terms of technical analysis, Bitcoin's charts in 2024 showed multiple MACD divergences and signs of channel breaks, which typically indicate the potential for price corrections or rebounds. On-chain data analysis revealed the behavior patterns of holders, such as holding amounts, transaction volumes, and the number of large trades, all of which are critical indicators for assessing market sentiment. Especially after Bitcoin's price broke the previous bull market peak, the reference value of on-chain data may become somewhat limited, as it requires price corrections to provide new reference points.