Bitcoin (BTC) has shown significant volatility in the 4-hour price trend, with frequent breakthroughs and pullbacks. We can see that BTC broke through $98,500 starting yesterday and has successfully broken through 6 times, but at 7 AM today, Bitcoin initiated the seventh breakthrough. If the price fails to stabilize at this point, it may fall back to the support level of $92,000.
Recent Price Trend Review
From December 18 to 20, Bitcoin's price experienced a significant drop, especially falling sharply from $106,074.6 to $97,144. By observing the candlestick chart, we can see that long upper shadows and large bearish candles appeared in the 4-hour candlestick level, indicating heavy selling pressure in the market, and there is still considerable downward pressure in the short term.
Technical Indicator Analysis
MACD: In the daily and 4-hour cycles, the MACD histogram remains negative and gradually expands, with the DIF line below the DEA line, indicating strong bearish momentum. In short, the market is dominated by bears, and there is considerable downward pressure on prices.
RSI: The current RSI value is about 40, close to the oversold area, but it has not yet entered the extreme area. This indicates that there may be a rebound demand in the short term, but it does not mean that prices will reverse immediately. The RSI has not reached extreme values, so there is a possibility of a rebound, but the strength may be limited.
Moving Averages: From the perspective of moving averages, the current BTC price is below the EMA20 and EMA60, and close to the EMA120. If the price fails to break through these moving averages, the yellow EMA20 may cross below the red EMA120, forming a typical bearish arrangement, further confirming that the price may continue to decline and fall back to the support level of $92,000.
Volume Analysis
On December 19, Bitcoin's daily trading volume reached a peak and then fell back, indicating that the struggle between bulls and bears near the high point has intensified. Recently, the overall trading volume has been relatively high, but along with the price decline, market sentiment has turned pessimistic, leading to significant selling pressure. Therefore, the market is still under heavy selling pressure and may continue to be under pressure in the short term.
Medium to Long-Term Additional Position Level:
Additional Position 1: $92,000
Additional Position 2: $90,000
Additional Position 3: $85,000
Short-Term Trading Buy/Sell Points: (Note risk due to large market fluctuations)
[Buy/Sell Points]
Buy Point 1: 95,000 USDT (close to previous lows, integer levels may form support)
Buy Point 2: 94,000 USDT (further probing towards a stronger support area, while considering an interval of more than 1%)
Long Stop Loss Point: 93,500 USDT (below Buy Point 2 to avoid excessive retracement risk)
Short Point 1: 99,000 USDT (close to recent rebound high, integer levels may form pressure)
Short Point 2: 100,000 USDT (after breaking through, there is significant upward space, integer levels have notable selling pressure)
Short Stop Loss Point: 101,500 USDT (above Sell Point 2, to guard against false breakthroughs)