A summary of the major central banks around the world in 2024 - the Federal Reserve may slow down its interest rate cuts next year, and the Bank of Japan has repeatedly postponed its interest rate hikes$BTC
1. The Federal Reserve (Cutting interest rates three times this year, a total of 100BP)
Interest rate trends: Hawks cut interest rates by 25BP, Hammark voted in favor of no rate cut; Powell said we are at or close to a stage of slowing down rate cuts.
Economic expectations: The economic outlook and interest rate expectations were raised, and the expectation of a rate cut next year was halved; most officials believed that inflation risks tended to be on the upside.
2. European Central Bank (Cutting interest rates 4 times this year, a total of 100BP)
Interest rate trends: The interest rate was cut by 25BP, and the statement of keeping the interest rate "restrictive" was cancelled. The governor said that there was discussion about cutting the interest rate by 50 basis points.
Economic Outlook: Progress against inflation is going well, but the President stated that the issue is not fully resolved, economic growth is losing momentum, and core inflation expectations have been adjusted upwards.
3. Bank of Japan (1 rate hike this year, totaling 15BP)
Interest Rate Trend: Pausing rate hikes for the third consecutive time, one committee member supports a rate hike. The President stated that they will continue to raise rates but need to observe the results of spring wage negotiations.
Economic Outlook: The impact of foreign exchange trends is greater than before, high uncertainty in Trump's tariff policy may have a significant impact.
4. Bank of England (2 cuts this year, totaling 50BP)
Interest Rate Trend: Decided not to cut rates with a 6-3 vote, disagreement exceeded expectations. The statement retained the notion of 'gradual' rate cuts, interpreted by the market as a hint of quarterly cuts.
Economic Outlook: Inflation is easing slowly, overall inflation is expected to continue to rise slightly, and economic growth has consistently been below expectations.
5. Reserve Bank of Australia (has not yet started a rate-cutting cycle)
Interest Rate Trend: Keeping rates at a 13-year high, for the ninth consecutive meeting without change, the Federal Reserve Chair stated that there was no discussion on rate cuts.
Economic Outlook: Potential inflation remains too high, the job market is still tight, the outlook has significant uncertainty, considering tariff risks.
6. Swedish Central Bank (5 cuts this year, totaling 150BP)
Interest Rate Trend: Cut by 25BP, adopting a more cautious stance next year. The President stated that if the outlook remains unchanged, further cuts may occur in the first half of the year.
7. Swiss National Bank (4 cuts this year, totaling 125BP)
Interest Rate Trend: Cut by 50BP, the President stated that cuts remain the main tool for further policy easing, ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary.
8. Reserve Bank of New Zealand (3 cuts this year, totaling 125BP)
Interest Rate Trend: Cut by 50BP, the Federal Reserve Chair stated there is still room for a further 50BP cut in February, expecting to be at a neutral interest rate level by the end of next year.
9. People's Bank of China (2 cuts this year, totaling 35BP)
Interest Rate Trend: The People's Bank of China maintained the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) at 3.1% and 3.6%, respectively.
