1. Scenario
Price Breaks Below $95,000 (Bearish Continuation)
If #BTC fails to hold the $95,000 support level and selling pressure persists, this could lead to a sharper decline. The next significant support level is around $90,200, as indicated by the previous low.
Short-Term Trading Strategy:
Short Selling:
Open a short position once the price breaks below $95,000 with confirmation (e.g., a 4-hour candle closes below it with increased volume).
Entry: Below $95,000.
Take-Profit Targets:
First Target: $92,500 (psychological level).
Second Target: $90,200 (strong support).
Stop-Loss: Above $96,000 to minimize losses if the price rebounds unexpectedly.
Scalping:
Use lower timeframes (15-minute or 1-hour) to scalp short trades during pullbacks. Look for bearish patterns like lower highs and enter at resistance levels.
Long-Term Investing Strategy:
If BTC drops below $95,000 and approaches $90,200, it might be an ideal accumulation zone for long-term holders.
Why: Lower prices offer better buying opportunities in anticipation of a long-term recovery, assuming BTC's fundamentals remain strong.
Plan: Use dollar-cost averaging (DCA) to buy gradually instead of a lump sum, as the price might fall further.
2. Scenario:
Price Holds Above $95,000 and Rebounds (Bullish Recovery)
If BTC respects the $95,000 support level and buyers step in, the price could rebound toward resistance levels near $98,292 (7 MA) or even $102,614.
Short-Term Trading Strategy:
Long Position on Bounce:
Enter a long position if BTC bounces convincingly from $95,000 with a bullish signal (e.g., a green candle closing above the previous red candle with higher volume).
Entry: Near $95,500, once the bounce is confirmed.
Take-Profit Targets:
First Target: $98,292 (7 MA).
Second Target: $102,614 (recent resistance).
Stop-Loss: Below $94,500 to reduce risk if the bounce fails.
Scalping:
Focus on smaller timeframes to catch quick movements from $95,000 to nearby resistances. Exit trades quickly to lock in profits, as the bounce might be weak.
Long-Term Investing Strategy:
If BTC rebounds from $95,000, consider waiting to confirm sustained bullish momentum before adding to your position.
Accumulate cautiously between $95,000 and $102,000, as this range might be volatile and temporary.
Focus on the 200-period moving average on the daily chart as a guide for long-term trend direction.
3. Scenario:
Consolidation Between $95,000 and $102,000
If BTC remains range-bound without a clear breakout or breakdown, it signals market indecision.
Short-Term Trading Strategy:
Range Trading:
Trade within the range by buying near support ($95,000) and selling near resistance ($102,000).
Buy Zone: Near $95,500 with a tight stop-loss below $94,500.
Sell Zone: Near $102,000 with a tight stop-loss above $103,000.
Use oscillators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) or Stochastic RSI to identify overbought and oversold conditions within the range.
Long-Term Investing Strategy:
Hold off on accumulating until BTC breaks out of this range. A breakout above $102,000 or a breakdown below $95,000 would provide a clearer direction for long-term action.
Key Notes for All Strategies:
1. Risk Management:
For short-term trades, avoid risking more than 1-2% of your capital per trade.
Always set stop-losses to protect against sudden reversals.
2. Confirmation:
Wait for confirmation signals (e.g., candle closes, volume spikes) before entering trades. Avoid emotional or impulsive decisions.
3. Use Leverage Cautiously:
If using leverage, stick to low leverage to avoid liquidations during volatile moves.