12.20 Forecast Analysis:

Bitcoin has fallen for three consecutive days, with a cumulative decline of 11.4%. Does this indicate that the prelude to the rise and counterattack is about to begin?

I have warned that once the price falls below 102,000, you need to pay attention to the downward trend at the daily level. In just three days, Bitcoin has fallen by more than 12,300 US dollars, and this may only be the beginning!

From a more macro weekly perspective (see Figure 1), Bitcoin is still in a bull market. The current decline is only a daily level correction, and can also be regarded as part of the weekly level consolidation, aiming to accumulate power for a stronger rise in the future.

At present, Bitcoin has completed the five-wave structure at the daily level and is in the process of the second wave correction. The ideal correction target range is between 77,000 and 83,000 (but not necessarily reached) (see Figure 2).

According to the wave theory calculation, any point in the price range of 71,968 to 94,212 may trigger a reversal rise. For investors who are interested in buying Bitcoin, they can build positions in batches within this range. If the price falls below 71968, the upward trend may be disrupted.

On the 1-hour chart, a potential bearish bat pattern appears, with a target price of around 101990.

At the same time, the Vegas channel pressure level in this area and the Fibonacci 0.5 retracement level of the entire section from 108000 to 95700 are also located here (see Figure 3).

Therefore, once Bitcoin rebounds to this area, short-term traders should be highly alert to risks and take corresponding risk hedging measures.

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