#美联储放鹰

The recent cryptocurrency market situation is severe, everyone must remain calm, restrain impulses, and firmly control their hands. Compared to the previous quantum panic, this time the remarks by Fed Chair Powell (Old Powell) have triggered a deep adjustment of policy direction, and their impact cannot be underestimated in terms of time span and depth, significantly increasing the uncertainty of the market direction. At such a juncture, the wisest choice is undoubtedly to wait and see, to hold back from action. It is worth noting that large holders in the current market are slowly offloading without making a sound, which is undoubtedly a dangerous signal. Everyone must not be confused by temporary fluctuations, blindly confident that the market is about to bottom out and rebound quickly.


It must be emphasized again that now is absolutely not the time to enter for bottom fishing. Important things are worth repeating: now is not the opportunity for bottom fishing, now is not the opportunity for bottom fishing, now is not the opportunity for bottom fishing!
Now we will enter a detailed analysis of the BTC market:

Precise pullback predictions, clear profit-taking strategies


Today, Bitcoin's price has dipped to around 98,000 yuan, and this critical pullback point has been accurately predicted. Based on the current situation, it is recommended to decisively adopt a staggered profit-taking strategy. On one hand, when the price rises to around 101,300 yuan, since this is a minor resistance point, the market usually encounters certain resistance here. It is recommended that investors moderately reduce positions to lock in some profits and reduce risk exposure. On the other hand, the more critical 103,000 yuan is a significant resistance barrier that is hard to overcome. Once Bitcoin's price successfully breaks through this point and stabilizes on the 1-hour level, it means that there is still upward momentum in the short term. However, considering the subsequent uncertainty, the wise course of action for investors at this time is to exit completely and secure their profits.

Break through 103,000 yuan, target price moves upward


If Bitcoin's price really breaks through the key resistance level of 103,000 yuan and stabilizes at the 1-hour level, then market sentiment will be further ignited, and short-term upward space will be opened, with hopes of hitting higher target prices such as 106,000 yuan, 108,500 yuan, and even the possibility of a strong breakthrough of the 110,000 yuan mark in the short term, advancing to higher points. However, even so, investors must remain vigilant at all times, as the market is ever-changing, and high returns often come with high risks.

Break below 97,000 yuan, pullback depth increases


Conversely, if the Bitcoin price breaks below the support level of 97,000 yuan on the 1-hour level, market panic may intensify, and more investors may choose to sell, leading to further price declines and increased depth of the pullback. At this point, we might see the price pull back to the range of 94,000 - 92,000 yuan for testing. Investors should prepare their psychological and operational plans in advance to respond swiftly.

4-hour level large channel test, beware of false breakdown traps


From the 4-hour level trend observation, Bitcoin is currently still operating within a relatively stable large channel. However, after multiple bottom tests, the market may soon experience a false breakdown that seems to break below the channel's bottom. When most investors are keenly aware of the downward trend of the channel and intend to go long, this may instead become a contrary indicator for the market. The influx of large amounts of capital into long positions may instantly drain market liquidity, leading to price fluctuations in the opposite direction. Therefore, in this situation, it is recommended that investors cautiously reduce positions, retaining a certain amount of positions to continue observing subsequent trends for flexible responses.

Focus on the key support level of the large channel


If unfortunately, the large channel at the 4-hour level is really broken, then the previously predicted range of 94,000 - 92,000 yuan may only be a brief false breakdown confusion zone, and the true strong support level may need to be tested back to around 85,000 yuan. Investors must closely monitor this key point; once touched, the market may welcome a new round of volatility and choices.

ETH market outlook is not optimistic


Looking at Ethereum (ETH), its trend is also concerning. Currently, ETH has broken below the second line of defense at 3500. From a comprehensive judgment of technical indicators and market sentiment, it is highly likely to continue downward and further test the bottom. While paying attention to BTC, investors should not take ETH's trend lightly to avoid falling into dual risks.

Summary


Overall, despite the comments from Fed Chair Powell triggering market policy adjustments and spreading panic, from a macro perspective, the overall trend of the cryptocurrency market has not completely reversed. However, this does not mean that now is a good time to enter the market; the complexity and uncertainty of the market far exceed expectations. Investors should remain vigilant at all times, carefully choose based on their risk tolerance and investment plans, and patiently wait for the moment when the market stabilizes and the trend clarifies.