Interview: Arain, ChainCatcher
Guest: 0xWizard
整理: Arain, ChainCatcher
0xWizard is a crypto KOL with nearly 200,000 followers on X, known as the 'Meme Wizard'.
Meme can be said to be a main thread running through this bull market cycle, although some people find it emotionally difficult to admit.
"Bravely participate in the second wave of opportunities" is 0xWizard's creed. Considering the bottom-up market recognition and reflections on the essential reasons, he believes that although the bull market has started, on-chain Memes are just beginning.
"In the future, there can still be 500 Memes worth a billion dollars, but it may be very difficult to find another asset worth 50 billion dollars." In an interview with ChainCatcher, 0xWizard stated. However, the primary and secondary plays of Memes are entirely different. For some high-valued Memes about to enter the secondary market, he recommends observing before building a position.
In the exclusive interview, 0xWizard also shared his methodology for capturing new tracks and narratives, including the 'Three Laws of the Bull Market Engine' and the essence of tracks. He discussed several currently popular AI Memes and experiences in Meme investments.
The following is the content of the exclusive interview:
My background in product development makes me better at new narrative tracks and semi-primary investments.
ChainCatcher: What did you do before entering the crypto space?
0xWizard: I work as a product manager in an internet company, participating in some B-end and C-end product designs. Later, I started my own business, creating internet-related products. In 2017, I noticed that the emerging field of cryptocurrency began to show a unique development trend, and I had friends discussing related topics. Coupled with my own interest and optimism about its development potential, I officially entered the crypto space.
Due to my past work experience, I am relatively good at judging new tracks and narratives, as well as semi-primary investments. I feel that the selection of tracks, tendencies, and product development in the internet space are fundamentally consistent. However, it is not about copying previous product thinking into crypto investments but rather recognizing many commonalities. For instance, when developing a product, one must observe whether users genuinely need it, rather than acting on one's subjective beliefs. It is crucial to avoid falling into the trap of top-down empty imagination in design and to observe whether the market recognizes it. The same goes for investing in crypto: determining whether a new track or project is viable hinges on assessing the market's acceptance level. For instance, in the AI track, many targets with over a hundred million dollars in valuation have emerged in both the primary and secondary markets, which indicates that the market recognizes it as a trend through actual actions. Thus, I tend to invest by first understanding and observing the market's real choices.
ChainCatcher: Please share your most successful investment and the most unsuccessful investment in the world of cryptocurrency.
0xWizard: There are quite a few successful investment cases. When I first entered the space, I played on-chain games and algorithmic stablecoins, and achieved a hundredfold return in about a month. Later, I participated in projects like ORDI, where significant investments also yielded returns around tenfold, and projects like ACT achieved nearly a hundredfold return.
Significant setbacks leave a deep impression. Therefore, I strongly advise everyone to avoid using leverage in the crypto space, whether it be contract leverage or regular leverage. Leverage is a source of significant setbacks I have encountered. Sometimes, the greedy side of human nature surfaces, or the unwillingness to accept profit retracement leads one to try to quickly recover losses, prompting oneself to leverage or engage in contract trading.
Every detour may be a necessary experience for investors; one must go through it personally. Only through the ups and downs, life and death experiences can one truly understand what to do and what not to do in investing.
ChainCatcher: Some tracks may be pseudo-propositions; what is your main criterion for judging tracks?
0xWizard: On one hand, it is crucial to look at market recognition from the bottom up. As I mentioned earlier, one cannot just subjectively imagine a track is good; one must observe the market's real reactions. For instance, in the AI track, many relevant targets with valuations over a hundred million dollars have emerged in both primary and secondary markets, which is a concrete indication that the market recognizes it as a trend, making it likely a track worth attention.
On the other hand, one should think about the most essential reasons behind the track. For example, what the crypto space fundamentally does, and which elements are its foundational successful parts. One can measure whether a track can succeed from these angles. In terms of crypto assets, I've summarized a few judgment 'axioms', encapsulating them into 'Three Laws of the Bull Market Engine'—
"Old technology, new play": As the saying goes, "Long slope thick snow," one should assess whether this technology has sufficient foundational accumulation, as on-chain assets rely on the advantages accumulated from prior infrastructures like DeFi.
"New track, new hope": If it is a completely new concept, the market's imagined valuation ceiling will be larger, similar to the previous metaverse concept. Even if the products may not meet traditional internet standards, because they proposed a new trend and new hope, they can achieve high market caps during bull markets. For instance, in the bull market of 20-21, projects like SAND, despite poor products, saw significant market cap growth due to new trends and hopes.
"Mass-producing new assets": A single lucrative asset is difficult to create a shocking force. Only when numerous related assets can be profitable will it form a powerful attraction, allowing different on-chain projects to profit investors, thus attracting more participation.
By integrating the bottom-up market recognition and reflections on the essential reasons, judging the track becomes less prone to error. Even if setbacks occur occasionally, they are temporary situations on small branches and do not affect the judgment of the overall trend.
ChainCatcher: You just mentioned 'the most essential reasons'; do these essential reasons point to the same place?
0xWizard: The answer to this question lies in what 'cryptocurrency' is fundamentally doing. I believe it mainly focuses on several key areas, as it does these "ten times better"—there's a startup methodology in Silicon Valley, when something is done ten times better than others, people have a reason to adopt it, leading to significant success.
The first is asset issuance. In traditional industries, asset issuance faces numerous legal, compliance, and procedural issues, making it extremely difficult. For instance, conducting asset-related matters in China can easily involve illegal areas. Even with options like the New Third Board or NASDAQ, transforming companies into assets is challenging. In contrast, asset issuance in the crypto space is very convenient, surpassing traditional industries in speed. Various unique entities can quickly be transformed into assets. Although there may be a plethora of junk assets, this rapid asset issuance capability brings native vitality to the crypto space, as seen from ICOs, to DeFi, inscriptions, and on-chain assets.
Secondly, there is regulatory arbitrage. I remember an interesting project, a Web3 project in Nigeria. Nigerians buy shopping cards through Crypto in the US and send them back home to their families. Although the transaction fees can be as high as 10-20%, they are still willing to do so because Crypto provides a pathway for regulatory arbitrage, bypassing Nigeria's foreign exchange controls.
The third is that speculative demand dominates. Speculation is an important part of the native demand in the crypto space, similar to the stock industry, where speculation is a neutral term. The crypto space has formed a global casino that operates 24 hours, with people constantly engaging in speculative trading, such as trading dog coins, adding leverage to speculation, and operations based on Ethereum's POS, all serving speculation. The rapid increase in TVL and transaction fees in DeFi during the last bull market but a decline during the bear market indicates that what is realistically happening in the crypto space is more around speculative demand rather than the previously expected change of the world and moving traditional financial assets onto the blockchain. The massive income scale of zero-sum games in the business models of the crypto space (e.g., BI's income nearing the BN level) also illustrates the dominant position of speculation in the crypto space.
In the future, there may be 500 Memes worth a billion dollars that should be focused on AI Memes.
ChainCatcher: You previously mentioned that Memes have become the new main thread of this bull market. What are your expectations from the primary and secondary markets respectively?
0xWizard: From the perspective of the secondary market, the Meme market will definitely have peaks and troughs, following the larger market trends. The specific price movements are challenging to predict accurately. I have previously made several forecasting errors, for instance, I originally thought Meme should pump first, but actually, like XRP, based on previous experience, it only started pumping at the end of the market cycle, whereas this time it began after Trump was elected during the first wave.
However, it can be confirmed that there will definitely be a pump, and it is highly likely to drop afterward, with declines possibly reaching 80% or even 90%. This is a relatively common situation. During the pump, some Meme coins' market capitalization may reach tens of billions of dollars, even over a hundred billion dollars.
From the perspective of the primary market, I believe the Meme market does not care about bull or bear runs; it will always exist. Even before the bull market, we could see Meme projects with market capitalizations of hundreds of millions, even billions of dollars emerging. While it has its own small cycles, it won't have a distinct bull-bear cycle like the larger market, although it may seem crazier during bull markets. In the future, there may be 500 Meme projects with market capitalizations exceeding ten billion dollars. Even if a single project does not have an exceptionally high market cap, possibly in the tens of billions or over a hundred billion, based on on-chain carrying capacity, the emergence of Memes with market capitalizations between one billion and twenty billion dollars is highly likely. Different chains are already experiencing such situations, like Solana, Base, etc.
Due to the limited market capitalization space of on-chain Memes, if its price is relatively high before listing, it is recommended to wait until it circulates to the secondary market, then buy after the price adjusts, as the valuation space in the secondary market is larger. The high valuation in the primary market may struggle to support further increases due to insufficient liquidity.
ChainCatcher: Why do you keep promoting AI Memes?
0xWizard: Firstly, investment in crypto relies on imagination. Historically, assets traded in the crypto space must possess sufficient imagination. For example, in the past, DeFi narratives revolved around the revolution of traditional finance, while NFT and metaverse concepts claimed that everyone would live in a virtual world in the future. These stories are particularly imaginative. But now, everyone has basically understood NFTs, and even Facebook itself has not successfully navigated the metaverse. DeFi, to materialize, needs to present actual data. Currently, I believe the most imaginative aspect of the crypto space is AI, and it is challenging for others to match that level of attraction.
Secondly, AI has practical value. Just as DeFi has real transactions taking place, evidenced by TVL (Total Value Locked) data reflecting its value, AI is similar. Some AI agent projects are already generating revenue, such as Virtuals; many AI projects are being widely utilized, like ai16z; and some AI projects, like ACT and GOAT, are achieving significant traffic. Even some AI agents, acting as knowledge aggregators, have outperformed many human efforts by consolidating the corpus to serve everyone—this constitutes a significant level of productivity improvement, not just empty slogans; it is genuinely impactful and can bring change to cryptocurrency.
Therefore, AI has both imaginative potential and practical applicability, and the practical part can further drive more applications to materialize. Based on this, I believe AI is the biggest trend in the cryptocurrency industry in 2025, without exception; other trends are not on the same level as it.
ChainCatcher: You have mentioned the ACT project's ecosystem multiple times; can you share your unique understanding of it?
0xWizard: ACT has a relatively unique ecological niche. It is a Meme that appeared at a specific time, representing a tokenization of the future concept of AI. It promotes support for some AI agents, encouraging them to experiment and innovate more, and also brings them together to create platforms like ACT swap, allowing everyone to interact with tokenization through input prompts on a single interface. This entire process is an interesting presentation of the integration of AI, crypto, and social media, representing an imaginative display of future AI development in this regard.
Moreover, ACT is currently the only AI Meme project listed on a major centralized exchange, making its advantages quite clear. Even if other AI Meme projects like GOAT, AI16Z, and Virtuals also get listed on secondary exchanges in the future, I believe ACT will still be one of the most important targets. After all, in this circle, everyone develops together, gains market recognition together, and obtains more liquidity together, leading to better overall performance. As the saying goes, "A solitary traveler speeds, while a group travels far." Thus, looking at it comprehensively, ACT has a unique position and significance in the AI Meme field.
ChainCatcher: Besides ACT, are there any other projects in the AI Meme space that you are optimistic about?
0xWizard: GOAT is a project that has generated heat in this track and has formed a certain consensus; people generally recognize it. Projects like ai16z and Virtuals that serve as platforms have a large number of AI agents using them for production and other operations, making them worthy of attention.
The advantage of platform-type projects lies in network effects. Once they achieve scale and influence, it becomes relatively difficult for others to challenge them. Other pure AI agent projects face more intense competition, faster iteration speeds, and relatively lower moats.
So if one wants to make relatively safe investments, projects like ACT, GOAT, and platforms like ai16z and Virtuals would be good considerations.
The differences between primary and secondary Meme play are huge; ordinary investors are not suitable for hot trading.
ChainCatcher: What are the specific differences in strategies required when participating in Meme investments in the primary and secondary markets? Could you share your methodology?
0xWizard: When participating in Meme investments in the primary market, the focus should be on market capitalization. One needs to judge based on experience at what market capitalization level it is appropriate to participate, and at what stage it is most suitable to join. For example, if certain valued targets drop from over 100 million to between 25 million and 30 million, with a decrease of about 80%, if it meets personal investment expectations and the 'strike zone', one can consider buying a small position. The process of accumulating chips for primary market targets is relatively quick, possibly taking only a few days or a week. As long as the market maker has not exited, there is the possibility of a pump happening later, which may be accompanied by narratives, community enthusiasm rising, and other operations like secondary pumps, even if there is a drop after the pump, it may restart later.
In the secondary market, one must adhere to chip logic. Investors need to learn the gameplay of the secondary market, such as Wyckoff theory and other technical analysis methods. While one does not need to be an expert, one cannot be completely uninformed. Otherwise, one may panic due to price fluctuations and fail to understand the underlying reasons. The secondary market has a chip accumulation process, known as the accumulation phase, which must be completed before entering the distribution phase (the pumping process).
Moreover, the secondary market places great importance on the speculation of new assets and new concepts. For instance, in the AI track, after a large number of AI agent projects have emerged, targets like ACT may likely experience explosive price action in the secondary market due to various factors. Compared to projects like Virtuals and ai16z, which are nearing a billion-dollar market cap, they have limited capital capacity in the primary market, making the potential for doubling in the secondary market relatively smaller. Therefore, these factors must be comprehensively considered to understand and grasp the investment logic in the secondary market.
ChainCatcher: You mentioned that investors should learn to distinguish between potential targets and hot trading. What indicators can assist us in differentiating the two?
0xWizard: I think we can observe and judge from the following aspects.
First is the narrative and community status of the targets themselves. In terms of narrative, for some AI-related projects, possessing innovative AI crypto interaction models or representing unique trends makes them stand out. On the community level, one should pay attention to whether loyal fans continue building during price declines, engaging in daily secondary creation and maintaining activity across various platforms. Additionally, the community should not be limited to only Chinese or English; both Chinese and English communities must be vibrant for the subsequent development potential to be higher. Narrative and community can be regarded as basic elements for judgment.
Secondly, consider the funding aspect. Attention should be paid to the chip situation and whether the market maker has already profited and exited, handing over the chips to larger players. One can utilize some chip analysis methods, such as checking whether the front row consists of large loss holders; if so, that target may struggle to rise again. If the market maker still holds a large number of inactive chips, it indicates their motivation to continue collecting chips and perform secondary pumps. By integrating the aforementioned trends, community conditions, and the following funding chip situation, one can roughly judge whether a target is a potential target.
Overall, hot trading is more suitable for professionals who are relatively skilled in the on-chain game, have the energy to participate early, and can invest tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of dollars, profiting by selling when it rises to a certain extent. For most ordinary investors, it is advisable to focus more on potential targets, but this should be combined with comprehensive judgment based on individual circumstances.
ChainCatcher: In your investment process in the crypto space, you must master a large amount of information to assist decision-making. Can you share some useful sources for information acquisition?
0xWizard: I commonly use various sources for information acquisition. Firstly, there are data websites like GMGN, which daily release popular target rankings covering various Memes and other related content. I recommend checking at least twice daily, recording newly emerged targets, observing their subsequent price fluctuations and chip structure changes, and then combining their trends and community situations to comprehensively judge whether to invest; this point is crucial.
Secondly, there are some tools; some tools can push hot BOTs, while others recommend dozens of related pieces of information daily. Of course, users need to have the energy to filter and view them on Telegram.
Furthermore, there are forwarding groups, like the domestic Alpha group, where one can understand the content that people are paying attention to and discussing. Twitter is also crucial; follow those who frequently share insights in the crypto space and participate in various projects. However, one must filter and select tweets from those considered reliable and valuable for reference. Additionally, one can form small circles with like-minded individuals of similar levels for mutual discussion and exploration. As the saying goes, "Many hands make light work," this can accelerate information acquisition speed. In summary, by comprehensively utilizing these channels, one should not face information shortages.
ChainCatcher: How do you filter and assist in investment decision-making amid a vast amount of information?
0xWizard: This is indeed a key issue. With more information, screening becomes critical. First, one must assess based on personal investment goals, risk tolerance, and other individual circumstances. For example, some information may look very tempting, but if the corresponding investment risk exceeds what one can bear, it should be considered cautiously.
From the information obtained, as I mentioned before, one must analyze whether the narrative is innovative, whether there is development potential, and whether the community is active and cohesive, considering both Chinese and English communities. One should not blindly follow others just because they say it's good; one must have one's judgment logic.
In actual use, it is essential to understand that investing carries risks. Even if one has done extensive information collection and analysis in the early stages, mistakes can still occur. I suggest that when starting to participate in investments, one can first try with a small portion of funds, treating it as tuition to accumulate experience. Once one becomes familiar and confident, one can gradually adjust investment strategies. At the same time, it is crucial to clarify one's investment style and understand which types of investments one is suited to participate in. For instance, hot trading is suitable for professionals with the energy to participate early, referred to as 'P small generals' (referring to early players in Meme PVP, where early Meme refers to those with a very low market cap when the internal market was just launched). They can profit from the first wave of trends; however, ordinary investors may be more suitable for focusing on potential targets, but ultimately, one should comprehensively judge based on one's actual situation.
