Bitcoin (BTC) hit an all-time high on December 17 but is still 5% below the $110,000 mark. Indicators like ADX and NUPL are pointing to a slowdown in bullish momentum, suggesting a potential shift in market sentiment.
While BTC remains in the “belief-denial” zone, highlighting continued confidence, its failure to break above key resistance levels raises caution. The next few days will determine whether BTC regains the upward momentum to test $110,000 or faces additional corrections towards critical support levels.
Current BTC trend shows a potential shift in sentiment
Bitcoin The DMI chart reveals that the ADX is currently at 29.2, down significantly from over 40 just two days ago when Bitcoin hit an all-time high. This decline in the ADX suggests that while the trend remains relatively strong, its intensity is fading.
With bearish momentum dominating, the market appears to be heading towards a period of consolidation or possible further decline.
ADX (Average Directional Index) measures the strength of a trend, with values above 25 indicating a strong trend and below 20 indicating a weak or non-trending market. Currently, BTC’s D+ at 18.1 and D- at 27.8 indicate that bearish forces are dominating, with sellers outperforming buyers in the short term.
This imbalance could push BTC price lower unless buyers regain control and D+ rises above D-, indicating renewed bullish momentum.
NUPL Bitcoin is far from the next thresholds
Bitcoin NUPL is currently at 0.60, down from 0.628 when Bitcoin hit its all-time high two days ago. This decline indicates a slight decrease in unrealized profits among BTC holders, reflecting some profit taking or market cooling after the recent rally.
Despite this decline, Bitcoin's price remains firmly in the "belief-denial" zone, indicating confidence among investors but with caution starting to emerge.
NUPL (Net Unrealized Gain/Loss) measures the total unrealized gains or losses of Bitcoin holders, and categorizes market sentiment into phases.
Values above 0.5 are in the “belief-denial” zone, while levels below 0.5 indicate the “optimism-concern” phase, and above 0.7 indicate the “euphoria-greed” phase, often associated with market tops. BTC’s current position at 0.60 suggests that while sentiment remains bullish, it is far from extreme greed and is still comfortably above concern levels.
BTC Price Prediction: Is $110,000 Still Possible in 2024?
If Bitcoin price manages to break the resistance at $103,638, it could gain enough momentum to test new highs around $108,000.
A successful move above this level could pave the way for BTC price to reach $110,000 for the first time, indicating continued bullish momentum and strong confidence in the market.
However, the EMA and ADX lines indicate that the current trend may be weakening, increasing the possibility of a bearish reversal. If the short-term EMAs cross below the long-term EMAs, a stronger downtrend may develop.
In this scenario, BTC price may test the support level at $94,000, and if it fails to hold, prices may drop further to $90,000, representing a potential retracement of 11.7% from current levels.