Finally back to my familiar territory, large-scale bottom fishing. Without a plan, it's equivalent to planning for failure. See the chart below:

In a rate-cutting cycle, you can't be like in a rate-hiking cycle, where you go empty when the market is bad; you need to have a certain base position that doesn't move. Personally, I currently have three layers.

From the end of 2022 to now, every time the market peaks, Bitcoin pulls back 10%, fluctuating at high positions; if it pulls back 20%, it hits the bottom. (Only this year in August did it pull back 32 points.) From 2020 to April 2021, during the bull market, Bitcoin had 20% pullbacks.

Even if Bitcoin drops 50% in a short time, there will be a technical oversold rebound.

The key Bitcoin mining machine shutdown price is at 64500u. If you don't know what this means, check previous posts!

Bitcoin pulls back 10%: 108500 * (1 - 10%) = 976500

Bitcoin pulls back 20%: 108500 * (1 - 20%) = 86800

Technically, Bitcoin has short-term support at 95600.

These are the reference standards for left-side trading (pre-ambushing). Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins are the same.

At least half of the positions should be in Bitcoin and Ethereum, for example, see the chart below:

For altcoins, the buying point is not good; if it halves, prepare to add positions twice; if the buying point is suitable (Bitcoin pulls back 20%), adding once is enough.

Want to know which altcoin to bottom fish? (Check out my altcoin post)

Note: You can't ambush all your funds on the left side; in case of extreme market conditions, you might get stuck.

For example: I currently have three layers of positions, if it pulls back 10 points, I won't add more; if it pulls back 20 points, I will increase my position by three layers, totaling six layers.

Remaining four layers of positions, unless Bitcoin drops 50% in the short term, or there are obvious signs of a rebound on the right side (narrow stop loss), I generally won't touch it.

Right-side trading means waiting for the upward trend to start or just starting to enter.

Although the buying price is not very low, it must be bought when the market starts, with good liquidity, so you won't be stuck for a long time; you start making money right after buying.

Always bullish, always with tears in my eyes. Wyckoff's bullish model: if the second bottom does not break, then it rebounds.

Let's talk about the right-side trend. At the beginning of a big market trend, it is always a strong one-sided upward trend, simple and brainless, making money with closed eyes (you can check my first post).

So how to promote a big market trend? Then you need to pay attention to some key nodes (you can check out my other post, mastering the market with trend investing)

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve's rate cut was negative, and next comes the December 25th foreign selling wave during Christmas (bearish). The Spring Festival has its own logic; buying a month before the New Year has yielded good returns since 2015, with only one exception (bullish).

Also, when the A-shares close, some people always feel itchy during the Spring Festival and come to the cryptocurrency circle for stimulation.

Short-term contracts are a one-way street; Sister Doll has already validated this well. (Welcome to read my post, can short-term contracts reach the other shore?)

I used to enjoy trading contracts, the best I did was roll a contract from 3,000 to 30,000 in a week, but it was always a cycle. Now I only do certain market trends, sleep well, eat well, and have fun.

Let's talk about something else.

Haha, quite interesting, the golden-haired person is quite funny. Always at odds with me, finally softened.

Lastly, I want to say, I am a retail investor, I do not carry any positions and do not have a group. This group is the first dog blogger I followed when I entered the circle, and I lost 30,000 yuan with him.

Haha, just stay inside and watch the jokes.

In the group from 2021, most are inactive, and the conversations are mostly about spot trading.

If you want to chat, search for the skirt name and add it, whether you succeed depends on luck, I am not the manager!

I'm going to lie flat again, after Christmas I'll delete all my posts.

A good warrior has no famous achievements, and a good doctor has no glorious name.
#市场调整後的机会？