Early morning thoughts led to losses and exit, with a total loss of 38,000 oil from two trades. The subsequent market developed, allowing for short positions to be entered, resulting in a gain of 340,000 oil from two trades. A friend took on a heavier position, and the market indeed provided opportunities, not only recovering the losses but also turning a profit of 300,000 oil. Failing is not scary; what is scary is not having the courage to start over. Tan Sen still advises everyone to strictly manage their defenses when trading to avoid unnecessary losses. The market is currently favorable, and capturing one or two rounds of fluctuations can quickly recover the losses.

Evening thoughts on December 19 and thoughts in the early morning

Hello everyone, I am your old friend Tan Sen. Let's review last night's and today's daytime market. Yesterday afternoon, after the market initially showed a downward trend, our market interpretation was: since the market dipped during the day but did not fall below 103000, our thought was to wait for a rebound in the market, and then wait for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision announcement, after which we expected another round of pullback and consolidation. Yesterday, I also emphasized a key point, which is the phenomenon of consolidation. On the eve of the interest rate cut announcement, the market had already begun a round of correction, which undoubtedly is a significant sign of consolidation. Subsequently, when the news of a 25 basis point rate cut was officially announced, and Powell mentioned in his statement that the Fed would slow down interest rate cuts starting next year, at the same time, Powell clearly stated that the Fed neither favors Bitcoin nor expects to use it as a strategic reserve. These factors combined led to further consolidation in the market. As we all know, this 25 basis point rate cut was actually a relatively certain expectation in the market, and when this favorable news was largely priced in, coupled with some negative news expectations, the market began a downward trend.

From the daily line perspective, the previous K-line appears as a solid bearish line, causing the daily MA5 and MA10 moving averages to be breached, and the price has once again fallen back to the daily MA30 moving average. Such a situation undoubtedly adds a lot of pressure and uncertainty to the market. Switching to the hourly perspective, it is clear that the downward trend of the price is still continuing and has not fundamentally reversed. The resistance level formed by the trend line is approximately around 102500. At this moment, the J line in the KDJ indicator has already risen to a high area. Given this, there is a high possibility of a small-scale pullback correction near the resistance level. In terms of short-term trading, the overall market is showing a trend of rebound meeting resistance at high levels.

Big Cake 99800-100200, looking to go long at 102200-102500
Second Cake 3580-3600, looking to go long at 3688-3720

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