Chances of Bitcoin's 'Santa Rally' Are Low, but 3 Altcoins Could Surprise, Says Kaiko Research ๐๐
Kaiko Research recently reported that the probability of Bitcoin reaching $120,000 by the end of the year is just 10%. Despite the bullish movement, most of Bitcoinโs gains have occurred outside US trading hours, highlighting that the current rally is primarily driven by the internal dynamics of the crypto market. Positive ETF inflows have fueled the upward trend, but market pressure is largely coming from within the crypto space. ๐๐ฅ The correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 has also dropped significantly, from 0.6 to 0.41. This indicates that Bitcoinโs price movement is becoming more independent of traditional markets.
Furthermore, the data from Bitcoin options on the Deribit exchange shows that thereโs a significant amount of speculation on Bitcoin reaching $120k, with open interest in Bitcoin call options expiring on December 27, totaling over $640,000. However, the implied volatility of Bitcoin options suggests that a big price surge is unlikely. The low delta values on high-price target options reinforce the view that Bitcoinโs chances of surging past $120k are slim, with analysts estimating only a 10% chance of this happening. ๐ฎ๐ธ
Source: Cointelegraph
