The term 'Santa Claus rally' originally refers to the market performance during the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the next year.
In years without a 'Santa Claus rally,' the cryptocurrency market experienced the largest pullback of 12.12% before Christmas in 2017. Besides that, the pullbacks in the cryptocurrency market before Christmas were relatively small, ranging from 0.74% to 1.25%.
Meanwhile, the market pullbacks after Christmas in 2021 and 2022 were 5.30% and 1.90%, respectively.
It is worth noting that in the past 10 years, there were only 3 years where the 'Santa Claus rally' occurred both before and after Christmas in the cryptocurrency market. These 3 years were:
2016, when the total market value of cryptocurrency rose by 11.56% before Christmas and 10.56% after Christmas.
2018, where, despite the market being in correction throughout the year, there were mild increases of 1.31% and 4.53% before and after Christmas, respectively.
2023, in the context of a recovering bear market, saw the cryptocurrency market rise by 4.05% before Christmas and 3.64% after Christmas.
In contrast, the overall performance of the cryptocurrency market in December was more extreme. In the past 10 years, there were 5 years where the December market grew by 16.08% to 94.19%. In the other 5 years of pullbacks, the market decline in December ranged from 1.73% to 15.56%.
Overall, the 'Santa Claus rally' in the cryptocurrency market is not a stable phenomenon, and its performance varies significantly, making it difficult to predict.