The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the third time in a row, with the cumulative rate cut reaching 100 basis points. The latest dot plot reduces the forecast for interest rate cuts in 2025 to 2 times.
On December 19, the Federal Reserve announced its latest interest rate decision, cutting interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the target range of the federal funds rate fell to 4.25%-4.5%. Among them, Cleveland Fed President Hammack voted against it, and she supported keeping the interest rate unchanged. In the policy statement, the Federal Reserve stated that when considering the magnitude and timing of additional adjustments to the target range of the federal funds rate, the committee will carefully evaluate the latest data, the changing outlook, and the balance of risks.
The latest dot plot shows two rate cuts are expected in 2025, compared with four in September.
Separately, the latest summary of economic projections showed Fed officials now expect inflation to reach their 2% target in 2027, later than the previously expected 2026.
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace. Labor market conditions have generally eased somewhat since the beginning of the year, with the unemployment rate rising but remaining low. Inflation has made progress toward the Committee's 2 percent objective but remains slightly elevated.
The Committee aims to achieve maximum employment and inflation over the longer run of 2 percent. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly balanced. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is closely monitoring risks that could affect its dual mandate objectives.
To support these goals, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% to 4.5%. In considering the size and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess recent data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee will continue to reduce its holdings of Treasury securities, agency debt, and agency mortgage-backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and keeping inflation at its 2% objective.
In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. If risks emerge that could impede achievement of the Committee's goals, the Committee will be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.