Trend

Let's talk about how the future trend will be?

The current expectation in the crypto market for the United States potentially establishing a strategic reserve of Bitcoin is overly optimistic, while neglecting other countries. Research indicates that sovereign wealth funds in Asia and the Middle East are more likely to be the next driving force.

After Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech, the price of Bitcoin plummeted, suggesting that investors may have placed too much importance on the theoretical possibility of a Bitcoin strategic reserve. Moving forward, more nation-states are likely to adopt Bitcoin, but the next step is more likely to be sovereign wealth funds in Asia or the Middle East, as they already manage highly diversified asset pools.

The continuous appreciation of the dollar poses macro risks to Bitcoin, as the dollar's rise is also associated with a contraction in global money supply, which often adversely affects Bitcoin and other crypto assets. In fact, the Federal Reserve's net liquidity continues to decrease. Tightened liquidity and a stronger dollar are also the biggest risks Bitcoin faces...

The decline in Bitcoin has led to drastic changes in positions for both bulls and bears. Bulls have been stopped out, and bears are taking profits, as the price of Bitcoin seeks support in the range of $100,000 to $98,000. To reverse the downward trend, the price of Bitcoin must reclaim the range of $100,000 to $101,400 and establish a foothold on the daily chart.

Additionally, the 4-hour chart shows that bulls need Bitcoin to demonstrate strong buying power around $100,000 and successfully close above $101,400 to solidify the upward trend. If the subsequent trend cannot maintain this level, it may retest support and buying accumulation areas around $98,000.

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