Big cake 103335 in 101417 out, gaining 1918 points, earning 100,000 oil

December 19 Morning Thoughts:

Yesterday afternoon, the Bitcoin market bottomed out at the 103065 level, and then the high point surged to the 104763 level, overall maintaining a range-bound oscillation within this interval. The market hopes that the bulls can successfully complete the consolidation and accumulate sufficient strength to launch another upward attack. Meanwhile, Ethereum's performance has been relatively active, steadily rising from the low point of 3802 to finally reach the high point of 3882. At three o'clock in the morning, the Federal Reserve's interest rate result was announced, and since it met market expectations, its immediate impact on the market was relatively limited. However, the price trend did not rise as expected; instead, it rose first and then fell. It is worth mentioning that our bullish thoughts at midnight were indeed validated to some extent in the early stage, but Powell's speech was like a thunderclap, delivering a heavy blow to the bulls. His remarks hinted that the pace of interest rate cuts might slow down next year, which caused yesterday's trend to repeatedly test the key downward support level near 104000, making the process of the bulls reclaiming lost ground exceptionally difficult. The overall trend resembled a strong flood discharge, leading to a reversal situation.

From a deeper analysis of the daily structure, after the price surged, it quickly retreated, forming a special shape with long upper and lower shadows. However, it is noteworthy that the current low point of the retreat coincides exactly with the previous high point, so at this stage, we cannot hastily determine that this is the beginning signal of a trend change. After all, the significant shrinkage of the price has specific driving factors behind it. Considering the current shape characteristics, after such a dramatic price decrease, it is highly likely that the price will first enter an adjustment phase, and it is very possible to adopt a correction strategy that exchanges time for space. Once the correction phase ends, the price is still expected to gradually regain upward momentum and embark on a new journey to reclaim lost ground.

Bitcoin short at 102000-102400, looking to test the 99500 level.
Ethereum short at 3720-3750, looking to test 3620-3640.

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