CoinVoice has recently learned that CITIC Securities stated that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25bps at the December 2024 meeting, in line with market expectations. The current dot plot shows the target interest rate midpoint for next year at 3.9%, higher than the 3.4% indicated in the September 2024 meeting, while also raising the inflation and economic growth forecasts for next year and lowering the unemployment rate forecast.
Powell's speech did not provide clear guidance on the 'magnitude and timing' of future rate cuts, but showed strong confidence in economic growth. From the SEP and Powell's remarks, the Federal Reserve has significant concerns about inflation next year. This monetary policy meeting was much more hawkish than the market generally expected, but it aligns with our view that the Fed will cut rates twice in 2025. We maintain this view and expect that the Fed will most likely pause rate cuts at the next meeting to observe, or may not provide clearer guidance until the March meeting. Volatility in the US stock market is expected to increase. (Jinshi) [Original link]