12.19 Market Analysis: The Deep Reasons Behind the Decline of 33,772,883,473
Market Review:
Bitcoin experienced a significant decline today, with price fluctuations exceeding 6,000 points. Although the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut met market expectations, prices fell instead of rising. Previous attempts to rise failed to break through the key level of 110,000 USD, and there is obvious pressure for a pullback.
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Technical Analysis:
1. Daily Chart Trends:
- Today’s close formed a large bearish candle, with trading volume significantly increasing, indicating enhanced downward momentum.
- The 30-day moving average remains upward, but the MACD fast and slow lines formed a death cross above the zero line, signaling signs of a bear market.
- The doji pattern from the previous day shows a downward targeting structure, increasing short-term adjustment pressure.
2. Hourly Chart Performance:
- The current price is rebounding at the MA30 moving average on the 1-hour chart, accompanied by signs of a 3-minute pullback in the short term, but the strength is limited.
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Influencing Factors Analysis:
1. Fundamentals:
- The Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision is not the main reason for this decline, although the US stock ETF shows that BlackRock is still increasing positions, but there are clear signs of capital outflow from other institutions.
- Investors are worried about economic data, safe-haven sentiment is rising, and with the Christmas holidays approaching, market liquidity is tightening.
2. Market Chain Reactions:
- Bitcoin's decline puts pressure on the altcoin market, and subsequent rotation opportunities need to be approached with caution. Market volatility is amplified, and stability is likely hard to achieve in the short term.
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Key Level Reference:
1. Resistance and Support:
- Resistance level: 112,000 USD, consider shorting at high levels.
- Support level: 100,000 - 99,200 USD region, if breached, pay attention to the daily trend support at 96,600 USD, as the bottom support may be lost.
2. Swing Suggestions:
- Consider positioning short near 101,400 USD.
- If the 100,000 USD level is lost, look towards the 99,800 - 99,200 USD region.
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Summary:
The adjustment of Bitcoin is influenced by both technical pullback needs and fundamental and market sentiment factors. In the short term, attention should be focused on the effectiveness of support positions and market rotation opportunities, grasping the rhythm and controlling risks. 9280803742746495918645
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