According to ChainCatcher, CITIC Securities stated that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25bps at the December 2024 meeting, in line with market expectations. The dot plot shows that next year's target interest rate center is 3.9%, higher than the 3.4% indicated at the September 2024 meeting. At the same time, the inflation and economic growth forecasts for next year were raised, while the unemployment rate forecast for next year was lowered.
Powell's speech did not provide clear guidance on the 'extent and timing' of future interest rate cuts, but showed strong confidence in economic growth. From the SEP and Powell's speech, the Federal Reserve has significant concerns about inflation next year. This interest rate meeting is much more hawkish than the market generally expected, but consistent with our view that the Federal Reserve will cut rates twice in 2025. We maintain this view and expect that the Federal Reserve will most likely pause rate cuts at the next meeting to observe, or may need to wait until the March meeting to provide clearer guidance. Volatility in the U.S. stock market is expected to increase. (Jin Shi)