Bold Guess - No Rate Cut

The expectation of a decline today is highly probable, as investors need to hedge before tonight's Federal Reserve meeting. The focus of this meeting is no longer about a 25 basis point rate cut, but rather the dot plot and Powell's speech.

In simple terms, the Federal Reserve may implement only 2 to 4 rate cuts in 2025. The higher the interest rates in 2025, the greater the probability of a black swan event occurring. The market will also be more concerned about the delay in easing policies, so investors' risk awareness is increasing. There is also a detailed explanation in the pinned tweet.

In addition to the interest rate meeting, there is also the question of whether Japan will raise interest rates in December, with results expected on the 19th. Although the probability of a rate hike is indeed not high, it is normal to take precautions. Moreover, these two events today are likely to be linked to next week's Christmas.