#币安Alpha项目公布
The Fed is about to cut interest rates, why did the market plummet abnormally? Reveal the truth behind it!
Wall Street said that the probability of a rate cut in December tonight is 95%, but why are Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Binance Coin all falling, and those small currencies are falling even more? Even the US stock index is falling, and the Dow Jones Index has set the longest consecutive decline since 1978.
Let's talk about the conclusion first:
In fact, the expectation of a rate cut in December has long been reflected in the price. How the price moves now depends on the expectation of a rate cut in 2025, that is, the interest rate dot chart of the Federal Reserve today and what Powell said. Now everyone in the market thinks that the Federal Reserve is quite hawkish, so many risk funds have withdrawn in advance and gone to risk aversion.
Will it rise or fall in the future?
In September this year, everyone was still looking forward to four rate cuts in 2025 to return to a neutral interest rate. But now, the market's expectations of the Federal Reserve have generally become hawkish. If the interest rate is cut three times, the market can still breathe a sigh of relief. If the interest rate is cut four times, the market will be happy and risk assets will definitely rise sharply. But if the interest rate is only cut twice, the risk market may suffer.
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