Wall Street generally predicts that there is a 95% chance of a rate cut tonight. Why are BTC, ETH, and BNB all falling, and the altcoins are even plummeting? In addition, the US stock index is also falling, and the Dow Jones Index has set the longest consecutive decline record since 1978.
Conclusion first
Because the expectation of a rate cut in December has already been priced in, the subsequent price trend depends on the expectation of a rate cut in 2025, that is, today's Fed interest rate dot plot and Powell's speech. At present, the market generally expects the Fed to be more hawkish, so a lot of risk funds are sold in advance to hedge risks.
Will it rise or fall in the future?
In September this year, the market generally predicted that the interest rate would be cut four times to the neutral rate in 2025. Now, the market's expectations for the Fed are generally hawkish. If the interest rate is cut three times, the market will be relieved. If the interest rate is cut four times, the market will be very optimistic and risk assets will usher in a very gratifying increase. If the interest rate is cut twice, the risk market may usher in a sell-off.