Recently, Bitcoin has continuously broken new highs, and Ethereum is also steadily rising; the overall atmosphere of the market is moving upward. Ethereum and Ripple are performing relatively strongly, while other mainstream coins and major altcoins are generally being siphoned off, with the market as a whole waiting for Bitcoin to stabilize before flowing into these coins.
However, even though Bitcoin has been rising, the trading volume has not increased; currently, it appears that there is still a possibility of further increases, and we may even see a price of 110,000 in the short term.
Today, a friend asked me where the top is; actually, this question isn't that important. The key is where the risks are high and where the opportunities are large; just manage your positions well. Many experts cannot accurately escape the top because the market is always full of variables. Next, I will roughly talk about my position management thoughts.
I think Bitcoin may oscillate around 105,000. Although it continues to hit new highs, the trend looks stable, the unfortunate thing is that the trading volume isn't large. If there isn't strong capital entering to push it up, and it is just through continuous bloodsucking to raise the price, then one should be cautious about a market pullback.
A slight increase and sideways movement are not much different; essentially, both are testing the market. There is no clear top in a bull market, and the risks for short sellers are also relatively large. The key points now are at large integer positions, and each breakthrough will bring a short-term pullback for consolidation, so don't rush to chase the rise; consider adding positions during pullbacks. After all, those standing on the mountaintop are always the most comfortable.
BNB is expected to fluctuate between $700 and $740. Recently, I was particularly moved that they issued loyalty rewards for two consecutive periods, the fourth and fifth periods.
ETH may consolidate around $4000 and gradually rise. Institutions have been continuously increasing their holdings recently, optimistic about ETH's long-term prospects, with a target of $4800 above. As the second-largest coin, ETH still has a lot of potential in the long term. If you think Bitcoin's price is too high, you might consider ETH.
Now let's take a look at today's Bitcoin market analysis: From the K-line chart, the 1-hour level shows a downtrend, the 4-hour level is also in a downtrend, and the 12-hour level has shown a signal turning downward, but the daily level is still in an upward trend. Today's resistance level is at $108,500, and the support level is at $102,500.
In this stage, choosing the right value coins will welcome next year's big surge!
Have you noticed that Bitcoin hasn't dropped much lately, while altcoins are frequently diving? Do you feel anxious? Are you a bit confused about the current market sentiment, seeing everyone criticizing altcoins while you also feel a bit at a loss?
Looking back at the market from October 2023 to March 2024, you will find that the main theme of this wave of market is Bitcoin racing ahead, while altcoins have completely failed to keep up with the rhythm.
Now, the capital flow in the market is mainly concentrated on Bitcoin, and the altcoin season's bull market has not yet started. In other words, altcoins will eventually be 'lifted', but the current situation is that Bitcoin is sucking blood, while other coins are waiting for opportunities.
From the current performance, the market for altcoins is mainly rotational, and everyone needs to focus on rotation opportunities before market sentiment erupts. Therefore, if you catch the rhythm and timely change your positions, that will definitely be impressive. If not, then maintain your mindset, continue to hold the altcoins you believe have potential, and wait patiently. If they rise, you are the winner; if they don't, you must recognize the current cycle.
At this stage, we need to focus more on strategies rather than overly believing in short-term predictions. When the overall direction hasn't changed, and the coins you are optimistic about have enough pullback, that is when we can act. But the hardest part is not the execution but maintaining patience, especially during market fluctuations.
Don't panic, brothers! Stay calm, seize truly valuable coins, and every time the market pulls back, bravely choose those with potential to hold firmly, and don't get shaken off the bus by volatility. Remember, every drop is to pave the way for a stronger rise in the future. Choosing the right targets is the most important thing at this moment!
Now let me share some tips for choosing coins:
In a bull market, if a new hot topic or concept suddenly emerges and begins to spread rapidly, then the prices of related meme coins usually experience a surge.
The characteristics of this stage are very obvious: the price of coins is soaring, with almost no pullbacks, or even if there are pullbacks, they won't exceed 30%.
To seize this opportunity, you can try the following two methods:
a. Regularly pay attention to hot coins in the market, especially have a certain sensitivity to their dissemination. Coins like BAN, RIF, LUCE each have their own characteristics and novelty, and their dissemination power is also very strong; while meme coins like DOGE and Eagle also have considerable potential in terms of dissemination effectiveness.
b. If you haven't been able to pay attention to these projects at the first opportunity, when you see some KOLs posting or group friends discussing, you can also judge which stage of dissemination the project is in based on this information. If you think it is in the early stage of viral dissemination, then that is a good time to enter.
Generally speaking, according to my coin selection criteria, when deciding to enter, the target coin's market cap is usually between 5 million and 50 million. Coins below 5 million are often just early speculators shouting madly, the market is very weak, and there might not be a strong backer, making it easy to go to zero in one go; coins above 50 million have less enticing odds, and even if you enter, you must control your positions.
For those popular coins with a market cap greater than 50 million, I prefer to wait for them to pull back to lower levels before entering, using light positions and waiting for the bottom to erupt.
Let me summarize for everyone which coins in the top 20 by market cap can be considered:
The Four Great Kings: ETH, DOGE, SOL, BNB
Four major old brands: ADA, LTC, BCH, BSV
Four major leaders: ATOM, DOT, FIL, UNI
Layer 2 DeFi; NEAR, OP, ARB, INJ, SSV
For specific prices, everyone can enter 30% of the current price, buy another 30% if it drops another 5 points, and another 40% if it drops another 10 points, entering in batches to acquire, believing that this position is relatively safe.
Now everyone knows that the altcoin season has arrived, but how can we judge that the altcoin season has come?
The key indicator for altcoins to enter a bull market is Bitcoin's market share. An increase in market share means funds are flowing into Bitcoin, and everyone is chasing Bitcoin, keeping altcoins in a bear market. A decrease in market share means funds are flowing out of Bitcoin and into altcoins, indicating that altcoins are entering a bull market.
Looking back in history:
In March 2017, Bitcoin's market share dropped from 80% to 30%, leading to an altcoin bull market. In January 2021, it dropped from 70% to 40%, and the altcoin bull market started again. Now, in December 2024, the market share has dropped to 56%, falling below the rising channel.
The last significant drop in market share was in January 2021, after which altcoins began to rise strongly until June 2023, when the market share broke through and continued to rise.
Recently, the market share has been continuously declining, with altcoins almost all hitting new lows, and retail investors are feeling the pain. Now, the market share has once again fallen below the rising channel, and a new altcoin season has begun!
Finally, in the past few days, I've seen messages in the group where everyone is saying VC coins can't be bought, can't be bought, but ironically, everyone still went ahead and bought them, huh? Why?
In fact, after the market has settled, the chips in retail investors' hands have almost disappeared after the environment washed out VC coins. As long as you keep up with the market rhythm, there is no shortage of capital inflow, which is different from some new coins that are directly cut in half right after they are listed. Projects without listing fees cannot go online; project parties and exchanges make a lot of money, and in the end, it's still the retail investors who suffer.
As for why so many people like meme coins, it's mainly because retail investors hold a relatively dispersed amount of chips, unlike some projects where the project team holds 80% of the market chips, allowing them to sell or swap as they please.
Saying this mainly aims to tell everyone that in the crypto circle, having fun and earning freely is the real victory.