Expected rate cuts by the Fed: There is a 96% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut today
The Fed will hold its last meeting in 2024 today, and everyone is waiting for their news. I heard that there is a very high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, 96%! Let's take a look at what's going on.
Advertising time: There is hope for a rate cut by the Fed!
Karshi said that there is a very high probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points today, at least 96% sure.
The Fed has already cut twice this year
US inflation has risen again
In the past few months, inflationary pressure has been very high, and it is not easy for the Fed to stabilize the economy.
At the beginning of the year, the US CPI index was only 308.417 points, and then it rose all the way to 313.55 points in April, and even reached a high of 315.66 points in October, but it fell slightly in November and returned to 315.49 points.
Looking at the producer price index, it was 142.683 points in January this year, and it rose to 144.834 points in June. It has been rising since then, and it has risen to 146.493 points in November, the highest point of the year.
There is also the personal consumption expenditure price index, which was only around 122.115 points at the beginning of the year, and it rose to 123.234 points in April. It has been rising steadily since June, and it has risen to 124.266 points in October.
The US job market is also a headache
The US job market had improved a little, but now it is not doing well again, which is also an important reason why the Federal Reserve is considering cutting interest rates.
On November 30, the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States was 224,000. In the first week of December, it rebounded to 242,000, returning to the level of 8 weeks ago.
Looking at the number of people who continue to apply for unemployment benefits, it was 1.87 thousand on November 23, and it soared to 1.89 thousand on November 30.
Looking forward to 2025
We still have to see what the Fed plans for 2025. The new government will take office at the end of January next year. They have to find a way to balance the two major issues of inflation control and economic growth.
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