Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) have risen by 5.3% and 1.5% respectively over the past week, showing a steady upward trend in the market. Although the implied volatility of BTC at year-end remains unchanged, the skew has declined, indicating that the market's expectations for short-term price fluctuations are stabilizing.

Technical indicators show that BTC's price trend has shifted from a one-sided correction to a restrained upward movement, with a target price between $110,000 and $115,000. However, if the price falls below $100,000, it may retreat to the $90,000-$95,000 range, suggesting that the current rise may be a correction.

The macro backdrop supports the performance of cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin. The news of Nasdaq including MSTR in its index propelled Bitcoin to break the $104,000 resistance level, and the funding rate has returned to normal, indicating market position adjustments.

Despite fluctuations in spot prices, implied volatility has not significantly increased, and year-end contracts face selling pressure, but demand for contracts at the beginning of next year is strong. The market is pricing the implied volatility for the first quarter quite high, which may be difficult to maintain.

The decline in skew reflects an increased demand for lower strike prices, with the market expecting BTC prices to fluctuate within the $90,000-$120,000 range. Overall, market sentiment is neutral, and future trends need to pay attention to key price level breakouts.