The reliability of meme tokens can be judged by some relatively large retail wallets. If many wallets hold assets worth over $1,000, this usually indicates that a stable community has formed behind the token, and those holders are likely to hold long-term.
Different meme tokens have widely varying holder distributions. Some tokens have their assets concentrated in the hands of a few individuals, while others are dispersed across multiple wallets, each holding a relatively small amount of assets.
Looking at the number of retail wallets holding over $1,000 can give us a good reference for the popularity of the token.
Among all meme tokens, Pepe (PEPE) is the most popular, especially among these medium-sized retail wallets. Besides the influence of meme culture online, Pepe also has a relatively long history.
Murad Mahmudov categorizes tokens into trading and holding types, considering Pepe (PEPE) as the leader, followed by DogWifHat (WIF) and SPX6900 (SPX).
In 2024, the influence and recognition of meme tokens have skyrocketed, and analysts are working hard to identify which tokens have more potential and reliability. Since its launch, the distribution of PEPE has become increasingly widespread, even surpassing those outspoken communities with a long-term holding culture.
PEPE aims to maintain a higher price range
However, in recent days, PEPE has shown signs of losing some holders. Typically, PEPE attracts dozens of new holders daily, but now there is a declining trend. One possible reason is that some small wallets are interlinked, creating a false appearance of a sell-off, thus triggering market panic.
Meanwhile, a well-known whale wallet has withdrawn more PEPE from Binance and stored it alongside APU tokens. Although some believe the distribution of PEPE is quite broad, signs of wallet concentration can still be observed. The recent whale buyer belongs to a cluster holding 2.62% of the PEPE supply.
Other whales have also shown interest in holding, such as the address ranked 32nd that is not connected to any cluster or smart contract, indicating its willingness to hold independently.
Currently, Wintermute has reduced its holding of PEPE tokens to 242 billion, worth about $6.8 million. As one of the most active meme market makers, Wintermute differs from most meme token influencers in its asset selection, primarily focusing on POPCAT, CAT, and BONK, and recently adding CHILLGUY, MOODENG, PONKE, and GOAT.
Recently, the trading price of PEPE approached its historical peak of $0.000027 but then dropped to $0.000023. This asset recently surpassed a market capitalization of $10 billion, becoming the third-largest meme token by market cap.
Despite the surge in the number of meme tokens, currently, only 10 tokens have a market capitalization exceeding $1 billion, while tokens with a market capitalization of around $500 million are in a 'gray area'; they could succeed or fail.
Currently, Murad Mahmudov's top meme tokens are still within the market capitalization range of around $500 million, waiting for more listings in the market and eventually breaking through. He also warned that there is a risk of rotation in meme tokens, but if the right 'cult' tokens can be selected, holders can still achieve better performance.
Meme tokens lose narrative basis
However, as investor and social media attention shifts to DeFi, the market share of meme tokens is declining. Star tokens like Moodeng (MOODENG) have begun to decline after a wave of high-profile listings, exposing that some of these tokens' partial earnings come from associated wallets and market manipulation.
One reason for this is that more and more attention is starting to shift towards emerging meme tokens, particularly those related to AI agents.
The market capitalization of AI meme tokens has expanded to $4.3 billion, although their share in the overall meme market remains small. Recently, Messari also pointed out that GOAT could become one of the meme tokens in 2024, while another AI-related token, FARTCOIN, is still trading at $0.77, close to its valuation peak.
Overall, the market capitalization of meme tokens has dropped below $120 billion. Most tokens have shown relatively stable performance, remaining in a sideways trend. However, tokens like SPX, GIGA, and AI16Z have performed outstandingly, especially driven by AI meme tokens, receiving enthusiastic market attention.