The value of BTC in the macro domain can be likened to bonds and stocks from the perspective of financial history; it is the 'fuel' for a new round of human technological development. In the medium domain, it is the currency of the digital world that humanity will inevitably enter, and also an index. In the micro domain, it is the realization of new legal regulations and the compliance of token issuance, thereby attracting global private investment demand.
This may be the last 'grassroots' cycle belonging to the crypto industry, as well as the final mega cycle in which BTC has significant beta growth. This means that after this cycle, BTC's beta will decrease significantly, but it does not mean that the broader token issuance market will lack opportunities for hundredfold alpha growth.
The peak of this bull market for BTC will appear in Q4 2025, with highs between $160,000 and $220,000. Before this, aside from the 'first wave' that has already occurred, there are still two significant mid-term trends of the bull market.
We are currently in the year 1999 of the internet era, meaning that after the bull market peaks in the next 12-18 months, the crypto industry will experience a long winter, similar to the bursting of the internet bubble in 2000-2001. Of course, this is also an opportunity for industry reshuffling and reorganization. I look forward to it.
When I feel the bull market coming, it is also the time of highest article output.
About four years ago, at the beginning of the last bull market cycle, I wrote ('How Should We Invest in Digital Currency in 2021?'). When we talk about the entire digital currency industry, we inevitably need to mention the value and price of BTC first.
If you already believe in the value of Bitcoin, feel free to jump directly to Section Five, where I discuss expectations for Bitcoin's future price trends.
One
The value of BTC, from the industry dimension, I want to discuss from three levels: macro, medium, and micro. From a macro perspective, BTC represents the risk-hedging expectations of the entire human financial market, and the third capitalizable 'financial medium' after bonds and stocks in human history; from a medium perspective, BTC is the best 'index' for the future human 'digital age,' also known as the Web3 world; from a micro perspective, BTC's compliance and regulatory framework is gradually improving, which will attract a large amount of 'traditional old money' in mainstream countries like the United States. In third-world countries, it will absorb the unmet domestic private investment demand.
On a macro level, if we view Bitcoin as a revolutionary asset in human financial history, then the most important thing is to understand the changes in financial history. In 'How Should We Invest in Digital Currency in 2021?' (Part One), we should properly position digital currency from a technological historical perspective. Behind every technological revolution, there has been significant financial infrastructure and new financial 'mediums.'
Behind finance lies the change of the times. Standing in the present, we may be at the most perplexing moment in the global political and economic situation in the past thirty years, and also the moment when the traditional financial order is most fragile and most likely to undergo a major reshuffle. I can no longer trace whether there were financial venues similar to the London Stock Exchange or New York Stock Exchange during famous financial bubbles like the 'Dutch Tulip Mania' hundreds of years ago, or whether Dutch vendors were accustomed to offline trading, merely speculating without establishing rules and order, which ultimately turned the bubble into vapor. However, in the long river of history, each technological innovation that humanity remembers has been accompanied by changes in financial paradigms, and the transformation of financial paradigms is the inevitable product of the changing times. These factors are mutually causal and reinforce each other, ultimately writing a remarkable chapter in human history. I cannot foresee whether, without the civil war that brought about a dramatic change in American society, reshaping social classes and encouraging technological innovation to enter industry, the Second Industrial Revolution would still have begun in Britain but ultimately flourished in the United States, becoming a milestone.
Meanwhile, I have a more radical view: when everyone is talking about economic stagnation and discussing how to find feasible business models—why does business itself need a business model? Has the term 'business model' already lost its meaning?
There are more of my thoughts here, which are somewhat complex, and I will not elaborate further, but will expand on it as the most important part in my future article ('The Four-Part Theory of Crypto Capital, Extra: A Philosophical Discussion on Business and Investment'). (Related reading: 'Token Issuance, A New Paradigm of Financing' - Part One of The Four-Part Theory of Crypto Capital).
[Excerpt: Discussing business models in the contemporary business and financial environment refers to the generic path developed by mainstream business entities, primarily 'corporate systems,' over the past century: expanding market size, increasing employee numbers, and finally going public, using profit * PE as the method for stock pricing. This path may not hold in the future.
In today's 'social capital' (or expressed as 'private economy'), the value held by equity enterprises may account for 95%, while listed companies, which are valued based on stocks, hold most of the capital value. However, in the future, this value may be more present in 'businesses' (why can't limited partnerships work) and 'tokens' (foundations).
Two
I want to spend some more time discussing the industry perspective of BTC. At the end of the book I wrote in 2021, the first of the eight predictions mentioned that BTC is unbeatable. Refer to the electronic version of my book ('Unlocking New Passwords - From Blockchain to Digital Currency') afterword four.
From the perspective of the technology industry, Web3 is an inevitable trend for the future, and Bitcoin is the core asset of the entire Web3 world, or economically, it should be called 'currency.' In ancient times, gold was the most common 'currency.' With the development of the modern national and financial systems, national currency became the most common 'currency.' In the future, with the advent of the digital age, all life in the virtual space of the metaverse will require a new 'currency.'
Therefore, it is meaningless for some people to cling to the notion that 'you are investing in a token.' Blockchain and crypto need a '+' just like when someone asks you what industry you are investing in, you say 'I want to invest in equity businesses' or 'I want to invest in an internet company.' Web3, as a special industry, and crypto as a new market means and financial medium, are gradually integrating with other industries—Blockchain + AI = DeAI, Blockchain + Finance = DeFi, Blockchain + Entertainment/Art = NFT + Metaverse, Blockchain + Research = DeSci, Blockchain + Physical Infrastructure = DePin.....
The trend is clear, but how does it relate to us? Or rather, how can we gain wealth appreciation by recognizing this trend?
Now let's turn our attention to AI.
In recent years, the main theme of the business society has been twofold, one open and one hidden. AI is undoubtedly a hot topic that capital has been chasing, while crypto is an underground swell, the gathering place for various legends and myths of wealth, but it is also limited in many ways, making it seemingly out of reach for many.
The potential of the AI market is indeed widely regarded as being in the trillion-dollar range, especially in the fields of generative AI, AI chips, and related infrastructure. However, for investors, while everyone believes that AI is a sunrise industry and is willing to invest their money, what should they invest in? Is there an AI ETF index fund that can comprehensively cover the AI ecosystem to effectively track industry growth?
No. Nvidia's stock price surged nearly threefold in 2024, while most AI-themed ETFs performed rather mediocrely during the same period. Furthermore, looking ahead, Nvidia's stock performance will not necessarily correlate positively with the overall growth in AI output—chip companies cannot forever have only Nvidia.
Comparison of mainstream AI ETF and Nvidia stock performance in 2024
AI is the main theme, but will there be a product that can anchor the future market value development of the AI industry, where the value of the entire AI industry increases, and the value of this ETF rises accordingly? Just like the Dow Jones index/S&P 500 ETF represents the development of Web0 (equity enterprises), and the Nasdaq ETF represents Web1, the investment opportunities of Web2 have not been presented in an indexed manner; the most suitable index for the value of the Web3 world, or the entire future digital world of humanity, is BTC.
Why must the value of the Web3 world be measured by BTC?
Because, since the birth of computers and the internet, humanity is destined to spend more and more time in the virtual world rather than the real world. In the future, when we wear VR/AR glasses, we can visit Yellowstone Park from home, feel the palaces of the Tang Dynasty in China, or meet friends across the globe in a virtual conference room over coffee... The line between reality and the virtual will become increasingly blurred; this is the future digital world, or the metaverse. And there, if you want to decorate the virtual space, or have the digital people dance for you, you will need to pay—this cannot be in dollars, RMB, or physical assets. The only thing I can think of that is most suitable and can be accepted by the entire digital world is Bitcoin.
I remember in the movie ('The Xinhai Revolution'), Mr. Sun Yat-sen held up a 10 yuan bond: 'When the revolution succeeds, this bond can be exchanged for 100 yuan.'
Three
Back to the present.
We live in economically stable countries where fiat currency can be trusted. However, this does not mean that the entire global financial system is as stable as the society we live in: Argentina's newly elected president announced the cancellation of Argentina's fiat currency system as the first order of business—after all, no one in Argentina trusts the fiat currency issued by the government, so why bother? Turkey's inflation rate reached +127% in 2023, and correspondingly, the ownership rate of digital currency among its citizens reached as high as 52%. Particularly in third-world countries, the gradual improvement of information technology infrastructure in recent years has led to the simultaneous development of traditional fiat mobile payments and digital currency payments. In comparison, it is akin to how, around 2010, China's booming information technology skipped the POS machine and credit card payment 1.0 era and directly entered the mobile payment 2.0 era. In recent years, third-world countries have begun to develop, leading to digital currency payments directly replacing the mobile payment methods of the 2.0 era, making digital currency payments a commonplace scene in daily transactions.
This raises an interesting debate: Bitcoin has no controller, and if it cannot fulfill the macro-control functions of fiat currency as a currency or 'currency,' then in fact, the dollar is also issued by enterprises. Therefore, the so-called government macro-control has to give way to the interest groups behind it; capital power is the driving force of the world. If we must say that fiat currency has macro-control, then the interest groups involved in Bitcoin mining are the biggest regulators.
Changes in the inflation rates of major economies in recent years
Changes in Argentina's inflation rate in recent years
From a micro perspective, as the speed of capital flow accelerates, technological and financial cycles become increasingly shorter. In an environment where economic anti-fragility is weak, traditional equity markets require an 8-10 year lock-up period, which raises concerns about liquidity for many. Meanwhile, token rights provide the possibility of early monetization, attracting more retail funds while offering early investors more flexible exit expectations.
In traditional equity markets, angel rounds or early investors typically seek partial exit through equity transfer or company buyback about five years after the establishment of the enterprise when the company has entered a more mature development stage but is still some years away from an IPO or acquisition (usually 8-10 years). This model can effectively alleviate the time cost of investment, but compared to token rights, its liquidity is evidently more limited.
The appeal of the token rights model lies in its ability to allow early investors to realize capital recovery earlier through token issuance or circulation, while also attracting a wider range of market participants. This flexibility could have a profound impact on the landscape of traditional equity markets. This aspect can be referenced in ('The Four-Part Theory of Crypto Capital, Part Two (Lower): A Battlefield Without Gunpowder—VC or Token Fund?').
On the other hand, the financial markets of most sovereign countries around the world are extremely fragmented and lack liquidity. The inherently global financial characteristics of crypto have greatly attracted these funds, including those from Korea, Argentina, Russia, etc. The stock markets in Southeast Asian countries, primarily Vietnam, cannot keep up with the wealth accumulation speed of the middle class, leading these emerging classes to skip the local financial market phase and transition directly to crypto. Against the backdrop of global digital currency compliance and integration with mainstream financial markets, the investment demand of private assets in these countries cannot be satisfied by the weak local financial infrastructure—Korea's main board market (KOSPI) and the growth enterprise market (KOSDAQ) together have over 2,500 listed companies, but 80% of them have market values of less than $100 million, with daily trading volumes that can be ignored. The digital currency market, which absorbs global retail investor funds, boasts the most abundant liquidity and has become their best investment target.
Current market value and trading volume of Doge
Current market value and trading volume of Samsung
Note: From the chart, it can be seen that Doge's current market value is about $60 billion, while Samsung's market value is approximately $234 billion, roughly four times that of Doge. However, the 24h trading volume of Doge has reached $5.5 billion, tens of thousands of times that of Samsung.
In the strategic position of the global digital currency market—the United States, 2025 is likely to welcome a new transformation of the cryptocurrency legal system. The two most important bills—FIT21 and DAMS—will affect the future of the crypto circle. These two blockchain bills, regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) rather than the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), fundamentally view token issuance as a commodity transaction rather than a securities issuance, thus placing it under CFTC management. Given that these bills were proposed by the Republican Party, while the current SEC chairman Gary Gensler represents the Democratic stance, the bills face considerable resistance. However, in the case of Trump being re-elected, with the Republican Party in control, the likelihood of these bills passing significantly increases.
To explain this bill, simply put, it means that token issuance is treated as a commodity and regulated by the CFTC, thereby legalizing it, which can greatly promote the enthusiasm for token financing. Companies can legally and compliantly raise funds through token issuance, attracting more capital into the crypto circle. Additionally, having a stable channel for long-term compliance and development will lead to more people remaining engaged in the industry long-term after making money. Most importantly, after the United States takes the lead in introducing this bill, it will officially unveil the competition in the global digital currency financial market and blockchain technology market, with countries 'rushing for projects' and 'rushing for talent.' In the fully globalized and freely flowing crypto circle, even more developments may occur in the future. If the U.S. policy becomes more friendly, token issuance may no longer be a gray area but rather a respectable financial innovation, and founders currently residing in countries that are crypto-friendly, such as Singapore and Switzerland, will soon experience a significant migration.
Four
Thinking back to 2016, when the whole world of crypto could be counted on one hand, BTC was like game currency, which could be directly 'recharged' into exchanges with RMB. Our generation of crypto natives had hopes for the future. (Refer to the end of 'How Should We Invest in Digital Currency in 2021?' series.)
That is also my dream.
Originally, my plan was to achieve these goals within 8-10 years.
However, we only took four years.
It was also at that time that I had a new dream—since Bitcoin as a currency asset has been slowly accepted by mainstream society, then other digital currencies, or tokens, should also serve as digital commodities in addition to digital equity, generating utility in the future digital world for humanity to better transition into the digital realm.
Oh right, this thing later got a new name—NFT.
The definition of 'digital commodities in the era of the metaverse' is my vision for the future of NFTs, which is also the most important part of realizing the 'commodities of the internet era' through Web3 transformation, digitalization, and thus mass adoption.
It is for this reason that I firmly decided to build the NFT industry at the beginning of 2021. In the series of articles ('The Path to the Future—Web3 Five-Part Series'), I have described my vision for its future.
Five
Of course, the most direct way to attract people, or rather, to make more people willing to read the articles I write, is still to rely on BTC's price increase.
It's time to get to the point. I need to mention my prediction for BTC's market: the peak of this round will occur at the end of 2025, with a reasonable range between $160,000 and $220,000. After this, in 2026, I suggest everyone stay in cash to recuperate.
In my paper ('Bitcoin Valuation Model under the Equilibrium of the Mining Market—Based on Derivatives Pricing Theory') written on January 1, 2019, I mentioned the bottom of the four-year cycle from 2018 to 2021.
And the bottom of the four-year cycle from 2022 to 2025 that I mentioned in 2022.
From the current perspective, the entire crypto circle is at a critical crossroads. Today's digital currency industry is akin to the internet industry at the turn of the century. Within the next 1 to 2 years, the bubble burst is not far off. With the passage of crypto-friendly laws like the US FIT21, and the completion of regulatory compliance for assets like token rights, many very traditional old money investors who previously lacked understanding of crypto or even scoffed at it will start accepting BTC and begin to allocate 1%-10%. However, after this, if blockchain and digital currency cannot gradually integrate with traditional industries and truly usher in the 'blockchain + industry' transformation—just as the internet industry transformed and integrated with consumption, socialization, and media—I really cannot see what new capital will enter, nor any reason for this industry to see amazing growth opportunities again. The DeFi of 2020, the NFT and metaverse of 2021, all represent correct directions and sparked a wave of innovation at that time. However, throughout 2024, BTC has repeatedly reached new highs, but the entire blockchain industry has completely lacked sufficient innovation to discuss, with the market filled with more memes and Layer 1, 2, and 3, but without new 'business concept innovations.' Moreover, looking ahead to 2025, the atmosphere of the entire industry makes me pessimistic about the emergence of milestone 'business concept innovation.'
As the tide rises, small rafts are everywhere, and all the boatmen are competing to see who rows faster, even mocking those heavy, machine-powered iron boats. But once the waves recede, wooden boats will run aground, and only those with lasting machine power can sail out of the harbor and welcome the ocean.
Moreover, I would make an interesting prediction: the peak of the crypto bubble will be marked by Buffett, the world's biggest opponent of Bitcoin, beginning to change his tune and even participating in the industry. The phase of revolutionary victory often coincides with the moment when the greatest crises are lurking.
We can compare the current crypto circle to the internet era of 1999. After a rapid boom toward normalization, the digital currency industry may face a severe adjustment starting at the end of 2025 due to a massive bubble. Looking back at history, the internet industry saw the first IPO of Netscape in December 1995, which ignited market enthusiasm with Yahoo's IPO in April 1996. On March 10, 2000, the Nasdaq index hit a historic peak of 5408.6 points. However, the bubble quickly burst, and by 2001 the market entered a winter period. Although the broad winter period lasted until 2004, the real low point was in October 2002 when the Nasdaq index nearly fell below 1000 points, marking the industry's lowest valley from a financial perspective.
In 2020, MicroStrategy successfully drove up the value of its stock by purchasing BTC, achieving a significant stock-coin linkage effect for the first time. By February 2021, Tesla announced its purchase of Bitcoin, marking the entry of major players into the market. These historical moments inevitably remind people of the '1995-1996' period in the blockchain industry—the dawn of the internet wave.
Looking ahead, I believe that by the end of 2025, Bitcoin's price may reach a long-term peak, but by early 2027, it may touch new lows. Once the FIT21 Act is passed, it could trigger a wave of public token issuance, just like the unprecedented boom of the '.com' era.
If the threshold for token financing is lowered to nearly zero, so that even ordinary people can easily learn to issue their tokens like a high school student making a website, then the limited capital in the market will be rapidly diluted by various tokens flooding in. In such an environment, the last wave belonging to token issuers' 'frenzied bull market' may not last more than three months. Subsequently, due to market supply-demand imbalance and capital depletion, the industry will inevitably face a comprehensive collapse.
However, before that, in the next 12 months, we still have the potential for BTC to rise nearly 2 times in beta, and for ordinary people, due to the global liquidity gathering, there will be countless opportunities for early coins to rise by 'hundreds or thousands of times' in a short time—why not participate?
Moreover, looking back at the tumultuous past of the internet industry, which was criticized by many media for being a 'bubble.' Today, the Nasdaq index has broken the 20,000 point barrier. Looking back to 2000, it seemed like a peak, but now it is merely a small hill. Even for those who entered the internet industry in 2000 and persisted until today, it has almost always been the right choice.
BTC is just another small hill.
It has been 3202 days since I bought my first BTC on March 7, 2016.
I still remember the price displayed at the moment I clicked the mouse, which was 2807 RMB, just under 400 USD.
Many people have asked me, how high do you think BTC can rise?
This question is meaningless. Gold prices have constantly reached new highs these days and years.
A meaningful question is, how high can the price of BTC rise before a certain point in time?
Let's wait and see.
Key point: The bull is still here! The bull is still here!! The bull is still here!!!
The season of copycats is approaching. Brother Jiu has carefully selected a few coins with a hundredfold potential for loyal fans. Please continue to pay attention and follow Brother Jiu's steps to capture the next wealth growth point! Get on the old Jiu's car! Keep eating meat, keep profiting!! 888 below, hop on!!!
