The recent market has really staged a drama of "big cakes take the lead, and copycats run with them". Fans and friends have lamented: Is the copycat going to be a failure? Don't worry, listen to Pepe's humble opinion first.
It has to be said that the market is now focused on the big cake. Capital flows are also flocking to the big cake like a market, with a clear goal: to reach a high point and stand firm on a new level! But what happens after reaching a high point?
According to historical rules, the big pie will eventually have to take a break, and it will probably fluctuate sideways at this time. What will happen to the subsequent copycats?
Don't panic, the situation of equal treatment will still come, but the time is not yet ripe. Why is there polarization now? The fundamental reason lies in the scale of market funds.
The capital increment from the last interest rate cut has already reached a certain limit, and the market's energy can only push Bitcoin higher, making it difficult to take care of altcoins.
To break this situation, we still have to look at whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates and inject liquidity again! The rumored timely rain is likely to arrive this Thursday. At that time, the market will receive more fuel, and altcoins will naturally benefit.
Mentioning altcoins, Pepe suspects that someone has already planned to liquidate their holdings. But have all altcoins really cooled off? I do not share this view.
In previous bull markets, Bitcoin always surged first, and after sideways movement, altcoins followed. Although altcoins are currently adjusting, it does not mean a total loss.
However, for certain categories, such as MEME coins and inscriptions, it is really not suitable to take chances at the moment. Large funds have already shifted to mainstream assets, and everyone should not chase high prices on non-mainstream assets, otherwise, you will truly become fodder.
Regarding Ethereum, which fans ask about the most, in this bull market, Bitcoin has already broken through the previous bull market's high of 69K, rising to 107K, while Ethereum still hovers around 4100, with a gap from the last bull market's high of 4800. Is this situation reasonable?
During the bull market cycle, Ethereum's current state is indeed not balanced enough. However, do not forget that Grayscale's selling pressure has gradually been absorbed by new capital, especially with major players like BlackRock entering the market, injecting strong buying power. This is a signal for Ethereum's warm-up, and soaring is just a matter of time.
This week's focus: Data + meetings, buying on dips. Tonight there are the sales data for November, tomorrow night is the third quarter current account data, and the day after tomorrow early morning there is also the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, as well as the ultimate package of GDP and PCE. After the release of these data, the market volatility is undoubtedly a good opportunity to go long. Everyone should focus on the lows, take profits timely, and the highs will keep getting higher.
Pepe observes the trend:
Currently, the market is operating within the upward channel marked by Pepe yesterday. After maintaining the lower upward trend line, a rebound has occurred. When operating near the trend line, attention should be paid to the fluctuations of the lower shadow of the candlestick; it is recommended to reserve **±200~300 points** of buffer space.
After the rebound, if the box range is reset and yesterday's first resistance level is converted into a support level, then if it consolidates within the 105.5~106.7K box range, the probability of forming a bottom and rebounding will increase.
Resistance level reference:
First resistance level: 106700
Second resistance level: 108000
Support level reference:
First support level: 105500
Second support level: 104500
Today's suggestion:
If the price breaks through the first resistance level, it will form an N-shaped upward structure, increasing the probability of a pullback in the range of 108~110K, and there may be a short-term adjustment at the 110K position.
Currently, we are retesting the new high point and need to be wary of sudden profit-taking sell-offs. The first support level can be regarded as an important short-term support; even if it breaks, there is still support forming below, so ultra-short positions can look for entry opportunities near the upward trend line + 104.5K.
Which altcoins can ignore bad news and be held for the long term?
First of all, Dogecoin (DOGE) is certainly one of them. The new high for Dogecoin is just a matter of time, especially after Musk takes office as DOGE Minister in January next year, he will definitely mention Dogecoin repeatedly. So there is still room for its rise. If you think the cost-performance ratio is not high, you can consider PEPE or Floki.
The logic of PEPE is very simple; the community consensus behind it is very strong. The key to meme coins is the community effect, and PEPE happens to have this advantage, so its position in the meme sector is also very stable. In the short term, I still expect it to rise fivefold.
Floki is also a project worth considering, as its biggest advantage is that the team is very willing to spend money on promotion. For example, billboards and appearances on CCTV news can bring in a lot of traffic. Moreover, Floki holders can also receive airdrops; the last round of airdrops distributed 4% of CAT profits to Floki holders, and recently, there will be a MONKY airdrop. This kind of project team knows how to give back to the community, allowing you to profit from price increases while also receiving regular airdrops, which shows they understand the needs of users.
Additionally, projects like Ondo in the RWA sector, and Aave and MKR in DeFi, are also worth paying attention to. Currently, these projects are benefiting from Trump's fame; having bought his holdings, these coins have recently shown good upward momentum, and it seems they still have some room for growth in the future.
Finally, there's the AI sector. Although the overall performance in the AI field is not outstanding, coins like FET still have a chance to double. If you think FET is too outdated, you can also look at ACT, which combines AI and meme concepts; its potential is also good.
