Bitfinex: Bitcoin may reach bull market peak in Q3-Q4 of 2025, looking at $145,000 to $189,000

In its latest weekly report, Bitfinex predicts that Bitcoin may reach the peak of this bull market between Q3 and Q4 of 2025, estimating the price peak to be between $145,000 and $189,000 based on indicators such as the 'Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT)' and '4-Year Moving Average (MA)'. (Background: VanEck's top 10 predictions for 2025: Bitcoin to reach a mid-cycle peak in Q1 next year, Solana spot ETF approval, DeFi innovation at record highs..) (Additional context: Bitwise's top 10 predictions for 2025: BTC, ETH, SOL to hit new highs, countries holding Bitcoin to double, 5 crypto unicorn IPOs…) Today, the cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex released the last weekly report for 2024, looking forward to the market situation in 2025. The report indicates that the market is still in a bull market phase based on data from MVRV, NUPL, and bull-bear market cycle indicators, but has not yet reached euphoric peaks. Expected peak in Q3-Q4 of next year. Bitfinex compares the price trend of Bitcoin in this cycle with past cycles in the following chart, where the dark green vertical lines represent the dates of past halving events. Based on the predicted next halving date (2028), the market is currently at about 16.6% of this cycle, and the light green area in the chart shows the price position of Bitcoin at the same stage in historical cycles; the red dots in the chart represent the points at which Bitcoin price reached new highs, clearly presenting Bitcoin's growth trajectory. According to the trend of the halving cycle, the market is currently in the mid-stage of the bull market, and a pullback is expected in Q1 of 2025. Additionally, new highs usually form 5 to 7 months after halving, with subsequent cycle peaks occurring approximately 13 to 17 months after halving, after which Bitcoin typically experiences a significant pullback (usually 60% to 80%), forming the bottom of the next bear market. Historically, peak points usually occur about 450 days after halving, which indicates that the peak of this cycle is expected around July 2025. However, Bitfinex notes that this cycle has its uniqueness. When Bitcoin set a historical high in March, the halving had not yet occurred. The institution believes this is mainly due to new investors entering the market through ETFs, driving a surge in demand. Furthermore, the 'distribution phase' in this cycle, where long-term holders gradually reduce their holdings and short-term holders actively accumulate, has lasted longer than before, possibly due to increased market supply. This prolonged distribution phase has caused the market adjustment speed to be slower than in past cycles. Bitfinex concludes: The market may peak around Q3 to Q4 of 2025. Potential cycle top at $145,000 to $189,000. In analyzing the price peak, Bitfinex uses the 'Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT)' and '4-Year Moving Average (MA)' to assist in predicting potential market tops. The details of the two indicators are as follows: 1) Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT): Measures the 'heat' or 'coldness' of Bitcoin price compared to historical average levels. BPT 2: Normal market level. BPT 6: Overheated bull market, indicating increased market activity. BPT 8: Top level, marking potential market bubble or extreme prices. 2) 4-Year Moving Average (MA): The blue line represents the foundational moving average of long-term price cycles, used to identify Bitcoin's long-term trend. +2 Sigma (green line): Approaching overbought zone, indicating increased demand, price may be overvalued. +6 Sigma (orange line): Approaching peak level, showing signs of extreme market conditions. +8 Sigma (red line): Historical peak price area, often marking market bubble tops. General trend: Bull Market: Price reaches BPT 6 and 8, reflecting market overheating, nearing market peaks. Bear Market: Price usually below 4-Year MA, market activity decreases, showing downward trend. Bitfinex notes that according to the latest data, Bitcoin price has stabilized above the 4-Year moving average and has broken through the BPT 2 level of $74,000, indicating strengthened market momentum, currently in the mid-stage of the bull market cycle. This trend suggests the market is likely to enter a stronger bull market phase, gradually shaking off the previous consolidation period. As the market officially enters the 'price discovery' phase after halving, Bitfinex estimates the cycle peak based on current BPT 6 and BPT 8 levels, respectively at $145,000 and $189,000. Based on a comprehensive assessment of multiple price and time models, the lowest target of this cycle of $145,000 is expected to be achieved between Q2 of 2025 and Q1 of 2026. Bitfinex concludes that although market volatility may occur in Q1 of 2025, the overall trend remains bullish, supported by ETF-driven demand, institutional adoption, and Bitcoin's enhanced status as a global asset. However, as prices approach the cycle peak, investors should remain vigilant and watch for signs of overbought conditions. Related reports: America’s first AI crypto officer David Sacks 'supports Bitcoin with the top ten statements': bought BTC in 2013, recognizes Satoshi Nakamoto's greatness. Does Bitcoin have a Christmas rally? Analyzing the past 10 years of BTC historical data tells you. Bitcoin breaks through $107,000 new high, why the newly effective cryptocurrency accounting standards in the US are a major benefit for BTC? "Bitfinex: Bitcoin may reach a bull market peak in Q3-Q4 of 2025, looking at $145,000 to $189,000" This article was first published in BlockTempo (the most influential blockchain news media).