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1. Trend analysis:
- H4: Strong downtrend from 1.82 to 1.64, currently showing signs of forming a short-term bottom
- H1: Price is in a sideways accumulation phase in the range of 1.64-1.65
- 30m: Trading within a narrow range of 1.64-1.65, low trading volume
2. Technical indicators:
- H4 RSI is in the oversold zone (30-35)
- H4 MACD gives a positive divergence signal with the price
- OBV shows that selling pressure is gradually decreasing
- Bollinger Bands are narrowing on the H1 frame, indicating a high potential for breakout
3. Volume and cash flow:
- Trading volume is at a low level
- CMF and MFI indicate that cash flow is balanced
- The buy/sell ratio is quite balanced in the last 4 hours
Trading scenario for the next 4-24 hours:
Scenario 1 (probability 60%):
- Price continues to accumulate in the range of 1.64-1.65 for another 4-8 hours before breakout
- Upside target: 1.72 (+5%)
- Confirmation signal: Break 1.65 with strong volume increase
Scenario 2 (probability 40%):
- Breakdown below 1.64 and continue the downtrend
- Downside target: 1.56 (-5%)
- Confirmation signal: Break 1.64 with strong volume increase
Entry recommendation:
- Should not enter right now due to low volatility and no clear breakout signals
- Entry points:
+ Long when breaking 1.65 with strong volume increase
+ Short when breaking 1.64 with strong volume increase
- Stop loss: 2% from the entry point
Assessment of the potential volatility +-5%:
- High likelihood in the next 12-24 hours of a strong volatility move +-5% due to:
1. Bollinger Bands are narrowing
2. Volume is at an unusually low level
3. RSI is in the extreme zone
4. In a narrow sideways accumulation zone
Recommendation: Wait for a clear breakout signal before entering, set conditional orders at the levels of 1.64 and 1.65.