[BTC Market Analysis This Week] 12/16
Weekly:
The candlestick pattern shows a fluctuating upward trend with support at 97300.
The KDJ is high with multiple bends and the three lines are getting closer, and the J line is turning downwards.
The MACD golden cross bullish momentum has been decreasing for four consecutive weeks.
The volume is decreasing and today there are signs of bearishness.
Analysis: The candlestick trend is bullish with support at 97300.
KDJ indicates bearishness, MACD indicates bearishness, volume indicates bearishness.
Summary: The final market trend this week is a decline.
Daily:
The candlestick trend is slightly upward with an increase of over 1000 points,
MA20 support at 100560.
KDJ golden cross touches the peak and turns back.
MACD dead cross is moving down, but the DIF is moving up, ultimately turning downwards.
Volume shows alternating bullish and bearish.
Analysis: From the candlestick perspective, the upward price increase shows insufficient upward momentum.
KDJ indicates bearishness, MACD indicates a higher probability of bearishness, volume shows that the transactions reached a bottom last week and released bearish momentum, currently alternating between bullish and bearish, indicating that bearish energy has not weakened.
Summary: The overall daily trend is bearish.
4-hour:
A top hammer line has formed.
EMA12 support at 103200.
EMA dual-track support at 97200.
KDJ dead cross.
MACD golden cross fast line is changing direction, bullish momentum decreasing.
Volume shows an increase in bullish energy release, followed by short bearish bars.
Analysis: The top hammer line, KDJ dead cross, volume pattern indicates bearishness, and MACD pattern also leans towards bearishness.
Summary: The market trend is bearish.
Hourly:
The candlestick is in the door drawing stage, temporarily the right door post has not fallen below the left door post.
EMA dual-track support at 101500.
KDJ touches the bottom.
MACD zero dead cross.
Volume shows a large bearish candlestick.
Analysis: The candlestick is in the door drawing stage, MACD dead cross indicates bearishness, but the large bearish candlestick and KDJ at the bottom indicate that the market needs to adjust to release volume and KDJ space.
Summary: The market is likely to trend in a fluctuating downward direction.
Given the situation where the market surges rapidly on Monday mornings, it is often the case that the remaining trend is a decline.
This phenomenon has frequently occurred this year.
Additionally, at 3 AM on Thursday, the Federal Reserve will make its interest rate decision, after which the market is likely to surge, with the lowest point expected around 97300.
After the Federal Reserve announcement, the market is likely to rise for three days, including Friday and the weekend, but ultimately, the market will likely crash the following Monday. Whether it will happen like last Monday morning's surge then crash, I think it is possible.
This coincides with the 24th, 25th Christmas Eve and Christmas.
Market Summary: This week will see a drop followed by a rise, then a crash next week.
