This weekend, the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin (BTC), experienced a strong bullish impulse, marked by the rapid absorption of limit sell orders and a spectacular short squeeze. In this BullRun context, BTC broke through new resistances and continues to approach key targets. However, signs of volatility and short-term correction risks call for a cautious approach from investors.
The Bulls are in Control, but the Orderbook is Exceptional
An analysis of the Orderbook reveals an extraordinary situation. There are practically no significant sell orders between $100,000 and the next target at $110,000. This means that the current momentum could allow the price to rise easily to this symbolic level without significant resistance.
However, this configuration also presents a major risk. If the Bears regain control, the lack of intermediate support could lead to a sharp drop back to $100,000, or even lower, to fill a CME GAP that opened this weekend. Such a correction would be healthy in a bullish market but brutal for late long positions.
Charts Confirm the Bullish Trend
1. Short-term Charts (15 min and 1D)
The charts show a strong upward dynamic but signs of consolidation:
• On the 15-minute chart, the rapid rise hit a local resistance, leading to slight consolidation.
• On the 1D chart, exponential moving averages (EMA 20, 50, and 100) confirm the strength of the bullish trend. The RSI is at 67, signaling a market close to overbought but still stable.
2. Long-term Chart (Weekly)
The Ichimoku chart on the Weekly timeframe highlights key elements:
• BTC has clearly broken the previous 2021 ATH around $75,000, establishing a new all-time high ($106,518).
• The next bullish target is around $110,000, while a potential retracement zone appears between $85,000 and $77,000.
In summary, the bullish trend remains intact over the long term, but a technical correction is possible and healthy to consolidate the move.
Risks to Watch
1. The CME GAP:
Traditional markets left a GAP this weekend due to the rapid upward move. Historically, these GAPs are often filled, increasing the probability of a correction towards $100,000.
2. Market Clean-up on Monday:
Mondays are often marked by a phase of clean-up of open positions before the market resumes its upward trajectory.
3. US Session:
The opening of the US markets is crucial to confirm the price direction in the coming hours. A strong bullish reaction could push BTC towards $110,000, while weakness could open the door for a retracement.
Investment Strategies: Short and Long Term
Short Term: Caution and Observation
• Watch the US Opening: Wait for clear confirmation before opening new positions.
• Buy Zones: If BTC retraces to $100,000 or $85,000, these levels represent solid buying opportunities.
• Profit-Taking: Consider securing partial profits around $110,000 to anticipate a correction.
Long Term: Maintain a Bullish Outlook
• The market structure remains strongly bullish. As long as major supports ($85,000 - $77,000) hold, BTC could reach higher levels in the coming months.
• The next long-term targets after $110,000 are around $120,000 - $125,000.
Conclusion: A Historic Opportunity to Manage with Caution
The Bitcoin market is evolving in an exceptional bullish context, driven by massive demand and the absence of major resistances up to $110,000. However, short-term volatility and correction risks require a disciplined approach. While awaiting the opening of the US session, it is better to observe price movements and prepare strategic positions based on key levels.
“The trend is your friend”, but one must always remain cautious when the market moves this rapidly.