Source: VanEck
Authors: Matthew Sigel, Patrick Bush
Translation: Bitpush News
Note: VanEck may hold the following digital assets.
Before starting the 2025 forecasts, let’s take a moment to review our predictions for 2024. Among these forecasts, we had 8.5 predictions that were accurate, with an accuracy rate of 56.6%. Although not perfect, considering Bitcoin broke 100,000 dollars and Ethereum surpassed 4,000 dollars, 2024 remains a memorable year despite some inaccurate predictions.
Review of 2024 cryptocurrency predictions
BTC spot ETF debuts for the first time – (1 point)
Bitcoin halving progresses smoothly – (1 point)
Bitcoin hits historic high in Q4 2024 – (1 point)
Ether remains in second place after Bitcoin – (1 point)
L2 dominates Ethereum activity (but L2 TVL still below Ethereum) – (0.5 points)
Stablecoin market cap hits historic high – (1 point)
Decentralized exchange spot trading volume hits record – (1 point)
SOL outperforms ETH – (1 point)
DePIN network adoption continues to grow – (1 point)
Now, let's get to the point: Our cryptocurrency predictions for 2025.
Top 10 cryptocurrency predictions for 2025
The cryptocurrency bull market peaks in the first quarter and hits new highs in the fourth quarter
The U.S. embraces Bitcoin through strategic reserves and increased cryptocurrency adoption
The value of tokenized securities exceeds 50 billion dollars
Stablecoin daily settlement volume reaches 300 billion dollars
On-chain activity of AI agents exceeds 1 million agents
Total locked value (TVL) of Bitcoin Layer 2 reaches 100,000 BTC
Ethereum Blob Space generates 1 billion dollars in fees
DeFi reaches historic high, DEX trading volume hits 4 trillion dollars, TVL reaches 200 billion dollars
NFT market revival, trading volume reaches 30 billion dollars
Performance gap between dApp tokens and L1 tokens narrows
1. Cryptocurrency bull market peaks in the first quarter and hits new highs in the fourth quarter
We believe the cryptocurrency bull market will continue into 2025, reaching its first peak in Q1. At the peak of the cycle, we predict Bitcoin (BTC) will be valued at around 180,000 dollars, while Ethereum (ETH) will trade above 6,000 dollars. Other notable projects, such as Solana (SOL) and Sui (SUI), may exceed 500 dollars and 10 dollars, respectively.
Following the first peak, we expect BTC to experience a 30% pullback, with altcoins facing declines of up to 60% during the summer market consolidation. However, a recovery may occur in the autumn, with major tokens regaining momentum and recovering previous historical highs before the year's end. To determine when the market is nearing its peak, we are monitoring the following key signals:
Ongoing high financing rates: When traders borrow funds to bet on BTC price increases, they are willing to pay financing rates exceeding 10% for three months or longer, indicating excessive speculation.
BTC Perps financing rate > 10% and sustained for months will be a bearish factor
Source: Glass Node as of December 8, 2024. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any securities mentioned in this article.
Excess unrealized profits: If the proportion of BTC holders with significant paper profits (profit-to-cost ratio of 70% or higher) stabilizes, it indicates market optimism.
Relative to realized value, market cap is overvalued: When the MVRV (market cap to realized value ratio) score exceeds 5, it indicates that BTC prices are far above the average purchase price, often signaling overheating.
Decline of Bitcoin's dominance: If Bitcoin's share of the entire cryptocurrency market falls below 40%, it signifies a shift to higher-risk altcoins, indicative of typical late-cycle behavior.
Mainstream speculation: A flood of inquiries about questionable projects via text messages from friends unfamiliar with cryptocurrency is a reliable signal of nearing speculative mania.
Historically, these indicators have been reliable signals of market prosperity and will guide our outlook as we navigate the expected market cycle of 2025.
For example: A 'Top Signal' text message from a friend I met five years ago. 2. The U.S. embraces Bitcoin through strategic reserves and increased cryptocurrency adoption.
Donald Trump's election has injected tremendous momentum into the cryptocurrency market, with his administration appointing cryptocurrency-friendly leaders to key positions, including Vice President JD Vance, National Security Advisor Michael Waltz, Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent, SEC Chair Paul Atkins, FDIC Chair Jelena McWilliams, and Secretary of Health and Human Services RFK Jr. These appointments not only mark the end of anti-cryptocurrency policies, such as systematically cracking down on cryptocurrency companies and their founders' banking, but also signify the beginning of a policy framework positioning Bitcoin as a strategic asset.
Cryptocurrency ETP: Physical creation, staking, and new spot approvals
The new SEC leadership (or possibly the CFTC) will approve multiple new spot cryptocurrency exchange-traded products (ETP) in the U.S., including VanEck Solana products. Ethereum ETP functionality will expand to include staking, further enhancing its utility for holders, while both Ethereum and Bitcoin ETPs will support physical creation/redemption. Whether the SEC or Congress abolishes SEC rule SAB 121 will pave the way for banks and brokers to custody spot cryptocurrencies, further integrating digital assets into traditional financial infrastructure.
Sovereign Bitcoin adoption: federal, state, and mining expansion
We predict that by 2025, the federal government or at least one U.S. state (likely Pennsylvania, Florida, or Texas) will establish Bitcoin reserves. From the federal government's perspective, this is more likely to be achieved through an executive order utilizing the Treasury Department's Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF), although bipartisan legislation remains an unknown. Meanwhile, state governments may act independently, viewing Bitcoin as a tool for hedging fiscal uncertainties or attracting crypto investment and innovation.
In Bitcoin mining, as the adoption rate of BRICS countries increases, the number of countries using government resources to mine Bitcoin is expected to reach double digits (currently seven). Russia has expressed its intention to settle international trade in cryptocurrency, driving this trend and highlighting the increasingly important role of Bitcoin in global economic strategy.
Number of countries mining using government resources
Source: VanEck Research as of December 2024.
We expect this supportive stance toward Bitcoin to ripple throughout the U.S. cryptocurrency ecosystem. As regulatory clarity and incentives attract talent and companies back, the share of global crypto developers based in the U.S. is projected to rise from 19% to 25%. At the same time, Bitcoin mining in the U.S. will thrive, with the share of global mining power rising from 28% in 2024 to 35% by the end of 2025, driven by cheap energy and potential favorable tax policies. These trends will collectively solidify the U.S.'s leadership in the global Bitcoin economy.
The share of mining power from publicly traded miners in the U.S. will reach 35%
Source: JPMorgan, VanEck Research provided data as of December 6, 2024. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Corporate Bitcoin holdings are expected to soar by 43%
In terms of enterprise adoption, we expect companies to continue accumulating Bitcoin from retail investors. Currently, 68 publicly traded companies hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets, and we expect this number to reach 100 by 2025. Notably, we boldly predict that the total amount of Bitcoin held by private and public companies (currently 765,000 BTC) will exceed the 1.1 million BTC held by Satoshi Nakamoto in the coming year. This means the amount of Bitcoin held by enterprises will grow at an astonishing rate of 43% over the next year.
Gold and Bitcoin ownership: Growth space for corporations and governments
Source: VanEck Research as of December 2024. 3. The value of tokenized securities exceeds 50 billion dollars.
Tokenized securities grow 61% in 2024
Source: RWA.xyz, Defillama as of December 6, 2024. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The crypto trajectory is expected to improve the financial system by increasing efficiency, decentralization, and transparency. We believe 2025 will be the year tokenized securities take off. Currently, there are tokenized securities worth approximately 12 billion dollars on the blockchain, most of which (9.5 billion dollars) are tokenized private credit securities listed on Figure's semi-permissioned blockchain Provenance.
In the future, we see significant potential for tokenized securities to be issued on public chains. We believe investors have many motivations to drive the issuance of tokenized equity or debt securities specifically on-chain. Next year, we expect entities like DTCC to enable seamless conversion of tokenized assets between public chains and private closed infrastructures. This dynamic will set standards for on-chain investors to implement AML/KYC. As an uncertainty, we predict Coinbase will take unprecedented steps to tokenize COIN stock and deploy it on its BASE blockchain.
4. Stablecoin daily settlement volume reaches 300 billion dollars
Monthly stablecoin transfer amount (in dollars) grows 180% year-over-year in 2024
Source: Artemis XYZ as of December 6, 2024. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Stablecoins will surpass their niche status in cryptocurrency trading and become a core part of global commerce. By the end of 2025, we expect stablecoins to settle 300 billion dollars in transfers daily, equivalent to 5% of DTCC's current trading volume, up from about 100 billion dollars daily in November 2024. Adoption by major tech companies (like Apple and Google) and payment networks (Visa, Mastercard) will redefine payment economics.
In addition to trading, the remittance market is also expected to experience explosive growth. For example, stablecoin transfers between the U.S. and Mexico could grow fivefold, from 80 million dollars per month to 400 million dollars. Why? Speed, cost savings, and the growing trust of millions who no longer view stablecoins as experiments but as practical tools. While there is much talk about blockchain adoption, stablecoins are its Trojan horse.
5. On-chain activity of AI agents exceeds 1 million agents
Total revenue of AI agents over five weeks reaches 8.7 million dollars
Source: Dune @jdhpyer as of December 6, 2024. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We believe one of the most compelling narratives is AI agents, which will translate into massive appeal in 2025. AI agents are specialized AI bots that guide users to achieve outcomes such as 'maximizing returns' or 'stimulating X/Twitter engagement.' Agents utilize their ability to autonomously change strategies to optimize these outcomes. AI agents are typically fed data and trained to focus on a specific domain. Currently, protocols like Virtuals provide tools for anyone to create AI agents to perform on-chain tasks. Virtuals allow non-experts access to decentralized AI agent contributors, such as finetuners, dataset providers, and model developers, so that non-technical users can create their own AI agents. The result will be a surge in the number of agents that their creators can rent out to generate income.
Currently, the focus of agent construction is on DeFi, but we believe AI agents will extend beyond financial activities. Agents can act as social media influencers, computer players in games, and interactive partners/helpers in consumer applications. Agents have already become significant influencers on X/Twitter, such as Bixby and Terminal of Truths, which have 92,000 and 197,000 followers respectively. Therefore, we believe the enormous potential of agents will spawn over 1 million new agents in 2025.
6. Total locked value (TVL) of Bitcoin Layer 2 reaches 100,000 BTC
Total locked amount of Bitcoin L2 reaches 30,000 BTC, growing 600% year-to-date in 2024
Source: Defillama as of December 6, 2024. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any securities mentioned in this article.
We are closely monitoring the emergence of Bitcoin Layer 2 (L2) blockchains, which have the potential to change the Bitcoin ecosystem significantly. Scaling Bitcoin enables these L2 solutions to achieve lower latency and higher transaction throughput, addressing the limitations of the base layer without sacrificing decentralization. Additionally, Bitcoin L2 enhances Bitcoin's functionality by introducing smart contract capabilities, which can support a robust decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem built around Bitcoin.
Currently, Bitcoin can be transferred to smart contract platforms via bridged or wrapped BTC from the Bitcoin blockchain, relying on third-party systems that are vulnerable to hacking and security breaches. Bitcoin L2 solutions aim to address these risks by providing a framework that integrates directly with the Bitcoin base layer, minimizing dependence on centralized intermediaries. While liquidity constraints and adoption barriers still exist, Bitcoin L2 is expected to enhance security and decentralization, giving BTC holders greater confidence to actively use their Bitcoin in a decentralized ecosystem.
As shown, Bitcoin L2 solutions experienced explosive growth in 2024, with total locked value (TVL) exceeding 30,000 BTC, growing 600% year-to-date, totaling about 3 billion dollars. Currently, over 75 Bitcoin L2 projects are under development, but only a few may achieve widespread adoption in the long term.
This rapid growth reflects BTC holders' strong demand for yield and broader asset utility. As chain abstraction technologies and Bitcoin L2 gradually mature into products usable by end-users, Bitcoin will also become an indispensable part of DeFi. For example, platforms like Ika on Sui or Near chain abstraction used by Infinex highlight how innovative multi-chain solutions will enhance Bitcoin's interoperability with other ecosystems.
By achieving secure and efficient on-chain lending and other permissionless DeFi solutions, Bitcoin L2 and abstraction technologies will transform Bitcoin from a passive store of value into an active participant in the decentralized ecosystem. As adoption scales, these technologies will create significant opportunities for on-chain liquidity, cross-chain innovation, and a more integrated financial future.
7. Ethereum Blob Space generates 1 billion dollars in fees
Source: Dune @hildobby as of December 6, 2024. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The Ethereum community is actively discussing whether Ethereum has gained sufficient value from its Blob Space through its Layer 2 (L2) network, with Blob Space being a key component of its scalability roadmap. Blob Space acts as a dedicated data layer where L2 submits its compressed transaction history to Ethereum and pays ETH fees per blob. While this architecture supports Ethereum's scalability, the value currently exported from L2 to the main network is minimal, with a gross margin of about 90%. This raises concerns that Ethereum's economic value may overly shift towards L2, leading to underutilization of the base layer.
Despite the recent slowdown in Blob Space growth, we expect its usage to surge dramatically by 2025, mainly due to three key factors:
Explosive L2 adoption: As users migrate to low-cost, high-throughput environments in DeFi, gaming, and community applications, transaction volumes on Ethereum L2 have grown at an annualized rate of over 300%. As more and more transactions flow back to Ethereum for final settlement, the surge of consumer-facing dApps on L2 will significantly increase the demand for Blob Space.
Rollup optimization: Advances in rollup technology, such as improved data compression and reduced costs of publishing data to Blob Space, will encourage L2 to store more transaction data on Ethereum, achieving higher throughput without sacrificing decentralization.
Introduction of high-cost use cases: The rise of enterprise-level applications, zk-rollup-driven financial solutions, and tokenized real-world assets will drive high-value transactions, prioritizing security and immutability, increasing the willingness to pay for Blob Space.
By the end of 2025, we expect Blob Space fees to exceed 1 billion dollars, up from the currently negligible level. This growth will solidify Ethereum's position as the ultimate settlement layer for decentralized applications while enhancing its ability to extract value from the rapidly expanding L2 ecosystem. Ethereum's Blob Space will expand the network and become a primary source of revenue, balancing the economic relationship between the mainnet and L2.
8. DeFi reaches historic high, DEX trading volume hits 4 trillion dollars, TVL reaches 200 billion dollars
Source: Defillama as of December 6, 2024. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Despite decentralized exchanges (DEX) trading volumes (both absolute values and relative to centralized exchanges (CEX)) reaching historic highs, the total locked value (TVL) in decentralized finance (DeFi) remains 24% lower than its peak. We expect that with the boost from AI-related tokens and new consumer-facing dApps, DEX trading volumes will exceed 4 trillion dollars by 2025, accounting for 20% of CEX spot trading volume.
Furthermore, the influx of tokenized securities and high-value assets will promote the growth of DeFi, providing new liquidity and broader utility. Therefore, we expect DeFi TVL to rebound above 200 billion dollars by the end of the year, reflecting the evolving digital economy's growing demand for decentralized financial infrastructure.
9. NFT market revival, trading volume reaches 30 billion dollars
Source: As of December 6, 2024. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any securities mentioned in this article.
The bear market from 2022-2023 has taken a heavy toll on the NFT industry, with trading volumes plummeting by 39% since 2023 and 84% since 2022. While the prices of fungible tokens began to recover in 2024, most NFTs lagged, with weak prices and inactive activity until a turning point in November. Despite these challenges, some standout projects have leveraged strong community ties to transcend speculative value, thus resisting the downward trend.
For example, Pudgy Penguins have successfully transformed into a consumer brand through collectible toys, while Miladys have gained cultural status in the realm of ironic internet culture. Similarly, Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) continues to evolve into a dominant cultural force, attracting widespread attention from brands, celebrities, and mainstream media.
As crypto wealth rebounds, we expect newly wealthy users to invest in NFTs not just as speculative investments but as assets with lasting cultural and historical significance. Given the strong cultural prestige and relevance of well-known collectibles like CryptoPunks and Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC), they are likely to benefit from this shift. While BAYC and CryptoPunks remain far below their historical trading peaks, having dropped about 90% and 66% respectively in ETH terms, other projects like Pudgy Penguins and Miladys have surpassed previous price highs.
Ethereum continues to dominate the NFT space, holding the majority of significant collectibles. By 2024, it accounted for 71% of NFT trading, and we expect this number to rise to 85% by 2025. This dominance is reflected in market cap rankings, with Ethereum-based NFTs occupying all top 10 positions and 16 of the top 20 positions, highlighting the blockchain's central role in the NFT ecosystem.
Although NFT trading volumes may not return to the excitement peaks of previous cycles, we believe a 30 billion dollar annual trading volume is achievable as the market shifts towards sustainability and cultural relevance rather than speculative hype, approximately 55% of the 2021 peak.
10. The performance gap between dApp tokens and L1 tokens narrows
Source: Market Vectors as of December 8, 2024. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The MVSCLE index tracks smart contract platforms. The MVIALE index tracks infrastructure application tokens.
A consistent theme of the 2024 bull market is that the performance of Layer 1 (L1) blockchain tokens significantly outperforms decentralized application (dApp) tokens. For example, the MVSCLE index tracking smart contract platforms has risen 80% year-to-date, while the MVIALE index tracking infrastructure application tokens has only returned 35% during the same period, lagging behind.
However, we expect this dynamic to change later in 2024, as a wave of new dApps launches, offering innovative and practical products that bring value to their respective tokens. Among the major thematic trends, we believe artificial intelligence (AI) is a prominent category for dApp innovation. Additionally, decentralized physical infrastructure network (DePIN) projects have great potential to attract investor and user interest, helping achieve a broader performance rebalancing between L1 tokens and dApp tokens.
This shift emphasizes the increasing importance of practicality and product-market fit for the success of application tokens in the ever-evolving cryptocurrency landscape.
(Content above excerpted and reprinted with permission from partner PANews, original link | Source: BitPush)
Disclaimer: The article only represents the author's personal views and opinions and does not represent Blockcast's views or positions. All content and opinions are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investors should make their own decisions and trades, and the author and Blockcast will not bear any responsibility for direct or indirect losses incurred by investors' trades.
"VanEck Outlook 2025 Top 10 Predictions: Bitcoin rises to 180,000 dollars in Q1, Ethereum looks at 6,000 dollars" This article was first published on (Blockcast).
