Good afternoon, everyone. Today (16th), the price of Bitcoin has reached a new historical high, breaking through 106,000 USD. This milestone marks Bitcoin's unshakeable position in the global cryptocurrency ecosystem and indicates that the market is in a new cycle of prosperity. Currently, the trend in the crypto space still follows Bitcoin's pace, with most mainstream coins performing weaker than Bitcoin.
As of the time of writing, Bitcoin remains around 105,000 USD, fluctuating and consolidating. The daily chart continues to rise and breaks new highs, but the expected short-term gains after the breakout may be limited and may not deviate much from previous highs, or there may be a significant pullback before the 27th, still needing a pullback to solidify the foundation.
Trump saves the crypto market.
Trump's election undoubtedly clears the regulatory clouds for institutions. Establishing a government efficiency department directly brings together a series of Wall Street financial elites like Musk, Peter Thiel, Marc Andreessen, etc. After Paul Atkins was appointed as SEC chairman, Trump appointed PayPal co-founder David Sacks as the 'White House Head of Artificial Intelligence and Cryptocurrency Affairs.' A series of measures indicate that Trump will create a government with relaxed regulations on cryptocurrency.
Recently, Trump once again confirmed his commitment to establishing a Bitcoin strategic reserve, and it seems he is serious. This is a strong stimulus for the Bitcoin market. Bitcoin broke through the high point of December 5th this morning, setting a new historical high. It successfully broke through the first target range of 104,500, reaching a maximum of 106,648, strongly breaking through and trapping a batch of short positions at 101,500—102,500—103,500—104,000. The slight fluctuations of the past two days have created an illusion for most bears that it cannot go higher, successfully luring in a wave.
As the policy dividends are gradually released, larger institutional funds in the US market are expected to return to the cryptocurrency market.
Currently, Bitcoin continues to show strong performance, with sideways movements instead of declines, consolidating within a range.
Although the short-term market does not show any significant profit effect in the past two days, U.S. stocks on Monday will experience spillover effects due to Microstrategy's inclusion in the Nasdaq 100, and ETFs are expected to continue inflowing. At the same time, the Fed is expected to complete rate cuts in December (the probability is already close to 100%), so the next wave of major market movements is likely to come soon.
Regarding ETFs, last week saw a net inflow of 2.17 billion USD for Bitcoin spot ETFs and 854 million USD for Ethereum spot ETFs.
This week, the Federal Reserve is about to announce an interest rate cut, which is expected to kick off the interest rate cut cycle in 2025, providing positive support for the market. Whether Bitcoin can directly break through 110,000 USD still needs to observe the subsequent release of volume.
With Bitcoin's independent movement, most altcoins remain unchanged at low levels. Let me share my views on the upcoming market.
There are still ample opportunities to enter the altcoin bull market. When liquidity is chaotic, even the most worthless can soar; let alone altcoins that have already been strategically positioned by strong entities within exchanges.
In other words, the seeds for the explosive growth of altcoin season were sown long ago during the bear market. No matter how your narrative changes, as long as liquidity is flooding, even the oldest targets can have explosive moments, and you don't even need to find a narrative; just pushing the price up will suffice. There are plenty of 'investment researchers' to write scripts for you.
Coins that can deliver critical hits were once considered garbage coins in the eyes of retail investors.
Because every explosive variety must go through a long and bloody washing and shaking process.
The painful, oppressive, hopeless market is precisely the source of profit for betting, while the noise and immediate big gains preferred by most retail investors are the fundamental reasons they lose their pants at high positions.
For the vast majority of targets, it may remain stagnant for years, with only one or two weeks of explosive growth. Only a few targets, like BTC, provide a tangible bull market process.
Because most people do not believe it, and because most people do not see hope or the underlying logic of altcoins, the altcoin season must come, and those that are still operational will experience explosive growth.
It's important to know that not many people make money in the early stages of a bull market; this is quite normal. In this wave of market, the leading ones are all from the old BTC series, which most people previously overlooked. At the end of the bull market, it will also be the old BTC that rises, while new and newer BTC will rise in the middle of the bull market. The general pattern of rotation is like this.
Most of the wealth effect occurs during the mid-phase of a bull market. Many people are unaware of the bull markets in 2017 and 2021. Take this year's early period as an example: the AI sector with WLD, FET, ARKM, LPT, etc., surged first to 10 times, and then the meme sector with PEPE, FLOKI, etc., increased 10 times in a week. Basically, all sectors saw a rise; at this time, as long as you don't frequently chase highs and sell lows, you will profit.
Just look at the small bull market at the beginning of 2023 and the small bull at the beginning of 2024; which sector hasn't seen a significant rise?
It's important to know that it was during a major bear market, and even altcoins had such impressive performance. Now it is clearly a bull market, so what is there to worry about?