Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Nan Zhi (@Assassin_Malvo)
Recently launched MOVE and ME have shown everyone the enthusiasm of the crowd in a bull market and the ferocity of new tokens. Looking back, the new token OL on OKX left a deep impression, as it surged on opening, briefly pulled back, and then continued to rise in a 'bulldozer' manner.
So is it true that the strategy for new tokens in a bull market is no longer the same, and there is no need to sell early after opening? Odaily will attempt to answer this question by reviewing several new tokens launched by various exchanges recently.
Basic Situation Description
This article selects new tokens from Binance, OKX, Bybit, and the entire network launch, limited to the last two months.
The entire network launched including MOVE and ME;
Binance includes SCR, USUAL (pre-market);
OKX includes MAJOR, MORPHO, MEMEFI, OL, and X (actually many launched but not including Binance, etc.);
Bybit chose MOZ (Lumoz) and XION.
In terms of time, the above tokens' closing prices for 5 minutes, 1 hour, 24 hours, 7 days, and the current price (as of December 16th, 15:00 Beijing time) are statistically analyzed.
Then compare the price changes of each token, such as the closing price of 1 hour relative to the closing price of 5 minutes, to determine whether it is 'opening at a high point'.
Does the phenomenon of opening at a high point still exist?
The price change data for each token is shown in the figure below. Among them, the average closing price of 1 hour dropped by 14% relative to the closing price of 5 minutes, while the average closing price of 24 hours dropped by 7%.
It can be seen that in the short term, the opening price 5 minutes after launch is still a high point. If the token can be obtained within that time frame, it is still recommended to sell.
There are eight tokens that have been online for a full 7 days, and these tokens have dropped by 8.7% in their 7-day closing price relative to the 5-minute closing price, indicating that the mid-term situation remains unchanged, and the opening is still a high point.
Will the situation change if the time frame is extended?
The current price relative to the 5-minute closing price has reached an average increase of 25% for 11 tokens, but excluding OL, it turns into an average drop of 21%, with the decline further expanding.
Opening is still the peak
From the above, it can be seen that for most tokens, the opening is still likely to be the highest point, and the bull market may bring a higher opening price rather than long-term gains. Moreover, one or two months of time is insufficient to dissipate the overly enthusiastic prices caused by the opening. According to statistical patterns, it is still recommended to sell if the token can be obtained within 5 minutes.
Estimated Price of Binance's New Token VANA
Based on the past 21 periods of Binance Launchpool data, we estimate the price of VANA to be 15.9 USDT, corresponding to an FDV of 1.911 billion US dollars and an initial circulating market value of 479 million US dollars.
Its algorithm is: the average annualized return for the past 21 periods is 96%, assuming this period is also 96%; then, based on the average amount of BNB invested in the past 21 periods and the BNB price of 726 USDT, we can calculate that to achieve the same annualized return, the price of VANA needs to reach:
16973725 × 726 ÷ 4080000 × 2 ÷ 365 × 96% = 15.93