Question one:
In the bull market of 2021, the total market cap of the cryptocurrency market reached a high of $2.8 trillion, with the total market cap of altcoins reaching as high as $1.6 trillion. During the process of Bitcoin (BTC) climbing from the previous high of $20,000 to $60,000, the total market cap of altcoins soared from $200 billion to $1.6 trillion, an increase of about 8 times. The current international cryptocurrency market cap is $3.8 trillion, with a change of 0.53% in the past 24 hours and a change of 135.66% in the past year.
As of today, the market capitalization of Bitcoin (BTC) is $2 trillion, with a Bitcoin dominance of 52.41%. Meanwhile, the market cap of stablecoins is $200 billion, accounting for 5.38% of the total cryptocurrency market cap. Assuming you still believe that the total market cap of altcoins can increase 8 times, then the future total market cap of altcoins would need to reach $12 trillion. If we calculate BTC.D at 40% at that time, then the highest total market cap during the bull market would need to reach $19 trillion. This is over 5 times that of the previous bull market, minus the current $3.8 trillion, leaving a need for $15 trillion in liquidity. So, where will such a massive amount of funds come from?
The second question:
You might think that many altcoins have not increased in price, but from another perspective, they have actually risen quite a bit. Take ARB as an example; from a price performance standpoint, ARB seems to have little increase, and its price trend even resembles that of a stablecoin. However, if we analyze it from the market capitalization perspective, ARB's market cap has grown by over a billion dollars in the past year. This is because its token circulation has increased from an initial 12.75% to the current 26.5%.
For those tokens with a high fully diluted valuation (FDV), even if their prices do not seem to have risen significantly, maintaining their market value actually requires a large number of investors (funds) to support them. Currently, there are many popular projects with high FDV in the market, and if you still expect these high FDV new projects to increase tenfold or even a hundredfold, one cannot help but ask where such a huge amount of funds will come from? Therefore, this bull market will not experience a universal surge like in 2021; the altcoin season only belongs to certain tokens. Finding the right targets also requires a certain amount of luck. If you are afraid of missing the altcoin season, the only thing you can do is look for a cost-effective entry point and set a stop-loss. As for whether it can break historical highs again, luck is very important.