Bitcoin pulled back a few days ago; even if 104,000 is the recent peak, there will definitely be a "double top" that will scare retail investors away. Unbeknownst to them, Bitcoin is approaching the 104,000 mark again, and whether it will form a double top or break through will depend on today and tomorrow. If it can't break through, it will be quite awkward!
If it breaks upward, then 120,000 to 130,000 is in sight. In fact, technical indicators suggest it will just cycle through again. The higher it goes, the greater the risk becomes, and one must tread carefully in the later stages. However, for the long term, one can disregard this. Holding until March to May next year may yield unexpected gains.
It's because every adjustment in a bull market leads to another surge, and those who think they have successfully timed their trades will continue to jump back in. After several iterations of this, speculators develop a conditioned reflex like Pavlov's dogs; every downturn reinforces their bullish outlook, leading to larger positions and greater risk-taking.
Even if there is a main downward trend with reasons for the decline, having already dropped 30% or even 50% from the top, those who frequently trade may still hold onto bull market fantasies, thinking this time will continue to reach new highs like before.
In the past couple of days, there has clearly been little profit effect, with only Bitcoin struggling to hold up. Bitcoin's support comes from the spillover effect expected from Microstrategy being included in the Nasdaq 100 on Monday, and ETFs are likely to continue inflowing. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is expected to complete the rate cut in December next week (with the probability nearing 100%). Therefore, before a real correction, it's still possible to see another new high, but the height isn't worth expecting.
After the past few days of movement, everyone can see that when Bitcoin rises, it does so on its own, but a slight pullback causes everyone to drop sharply. This indicates that many coins have too much profit-taking pressure and need to be offloaded, lacking the momentum to push up. It might be better to drop down and then everyone can lift it together.
The market reversal should happen in the next few days; today is Sunday, so there may not be much change.
If this wave really drops down, it means the biggest bull market will begin next, as everyone is waiting for a pullback to buy the dip. At that time, everyone will enter together to push the market to its peak.
You've seen this far, so give a follow + like before you go. I'm Qing Tian, a seasoned trader sincerely wishing you great wealth!
