Market overview: a chaotic dance of golden crosses and dead crosses.
Today's trading data for UNI/USDT resembles a game of EMA signal. The short-term trend appears to be manipulated by the high-frequency switching of bulls and bears, with each signal testing market sentiment:
Frequent alternation: golden crosses and dead crosses taking turns.
Today, there were 5 golden crosses and 5 dead crosses, indicating that market short-term sentiment is quite stuck. For example, at 18:45, despite the golden cross accompanying the MACD golden cross, the price not only did not rally but instead saw a 57% drop in trading volume.
In contrast to the dead cross signals, such as the dead cross at 15:15, which showed increased selling pressure, the price only slightly retraced. This phenomenon indicates that the current market's sensitivity to technical signals is weakening.
Volume puzzle: imbalance between price and volume.
The dramatic fluctuations in trading volume raise doubts about whether whales are quietly accumulating or retail investors are excessively chasing highs and cutting losses. For example, at the dead cross at 03:00, trading volume plummeted by 72%, but subsequently, at the golden cross at 03:45, trading volume rose by 44%, indicating that market participants are trying to find a short-term direction.
Price range: low volatility narrow oscillation.
Today's price range for UNI is only between $17 and $17.78, with both buyers and sellers lacking strong breakout momentum.
DeFi star, darling of whales.
As a star project in the DeFi space, Uniswap has several significant highlights recently:
Significant market capital expansion:
In just a few weeks, the total market cap has grown from $7.8 billion to $10.4 billion. This is not only a signal of the recovery of DeFi but also a strong endorsement of UNI's future potential.
Whales are actively entering the market:
Large funds have accumulated as much as 1.68 million UNI this week and withdrawn a large amount of coins from exchanges. The buying actions of whales indicate their confidence in UNI's long-term development, which resonates with the recent bullish technical signals in the market.
Technically bullish, profit-taking pressure still exists:
MACD shows signs of increasing momentum, while ADX indicates that buying pressure is rising. However, over 62% of holding addresses are in profit, and short-term profit-taking may suppress UNI's upward potential.
UNI price outlook and key resistance.
Short-term support and resistance (15m):
Current support level: $17.
Key resistance level: $17.45. If broken, it may open up space towards $18.
Medium-term potential and concerns:
If the current momentum is maintained, UNI is expected to test $27.41 (Fibonacci 1.618 target).
However, the high open interest and slightly bearish derivative data (long-short ratio of 0.959) indicate that market speculation is high, and volatility risks still exist.
Investment advice.
Holders: Maintain a steady position.
Current market support is relatively strong, with limited downside risk in the short term. It is advisable to remain patient and wait for a clearer direction.
Short-term traders: Participate cautiously.
Pay attention to the breakout at $17.45. If the breakout is followed by sustained volume expansion, you can consider following the trend. However, if the market continues to oscillate within a narrow range, be cautious of false breakout risks.
Long-term investors: Pay attention to whale movements.
The recent large-scale accumulation by whales has provided confidence support for the medium to long-term development of UNI. However, as technical breakthroughs advance, market volatility will also intensify, suggesting to monitor further changes in whale buying or selling behavior.
Uniswap's performance today resembles a market performance show, with golden crosses and dead crosses taking turns, while whales and retail investors each have their own opinions. In the short term, UNI is still in a consolidation phase, but from a technical and capital perspective, long-term potential is worth looking forward to. In the coming days, the resistance level at $17.45 and the subsequent actions of whales are key factors to focus on.
Whether you are a lurking hunter or an audience watching the show, this play on UNI is about to reach a new climax. 🚀