The total supply of ME tokens is 1 billion, with an initial circulation of 125 million airdropped tokens, and the distribution of other tokens will gradually be released over four years. Due to the recent good performance of airdrop projects like Hyperliquid and Movement after their TGE, coupled with Magic Eden currently being the leader in the multi-chain NFT trading market, the community has high expectations before the token launch:
“The opening price for ME is expected to be $10, with a long-term potential of reaching $30.”
“The distribution of ME airdrops is relatively reasonable, taking care of most real users, platform whales, and yield farmers.”
“ME's price is benchmarked against HYPE, but it definitely won't be worse than MOVE's opening.”
Of course, there are community members who remain rational, believing that ME's price before the opening is already too high:
“I have already shorted ME in the OKX pre-market trading, and the current FDV is already higher than its intrinsic value.”
“Sell ME at the opening, starting with a 10 billion FDV is just a way for VC to dump.”
After the opening, the trend indeed followed expectations, spiking before selling off. Whether this is due to airdrop shares or the project's own actions remains unclear, reflecting back on the previously mentioned meme sector.
The 0.5 GOAT was influenced by the news of its listing on OKX, and it has quickly doubled to 0.915.
The 1 PNUT has surged by 40% due to news of the Coinbase roadmap, currently at 1.2 with a 20% profit.
Both ACT and MOODENG have seen a rise of over 20%. These are all public tokens that consistently called for bottom fishing during market downturns. The MEME sector has been the brightest this year, and any rebound after a drop will likely be led by them.
Since the airdrop, Magic Eden (ME) has been struggling with its price, with 75% of the 125 million tokens claimed. Most trading occurred within the first hour, at which point more than 60 million tokens were claimed, while the remaining 25% is expected to be gradually claimed without causing significant price fluctuations.
About 80% of the recipients sold all their tokens, with only 8.3% of participants retaining all airdropped tokens, indicating limited long-term interest. As ME fluctuates near a key support level, maintaining the $4 price level or overcoming the resistance levels of $4.69 and $5.10 will determine the token's next price trend.
As most recipients quickly sold or used their tokens, the remaining 25% of the tokens are expected to be gradually claimed in the coming days. The slowdown in claim rates has reduced the likelihood of a massive sell-off, which could negatively affect ME's price. Therefore, the unclaimed token portion may not significantly impact ME's price in the near term.
About 80% of the recipients sold all of their ME.
So far, 133,888 wallets have claimed ME, of which 108,070 wallets (around 80%) have sold all airdropped tokens. If we include wallets that sold at least 25% of the received tokens, this number reaches 121,617 wallets, accounting for 90% of participants.
Only 11,175 wallets (8.3%) retained all the ME received from the airdrop. Additionally, only 1,276 wallets (0.95%) bought extra ME after receiving the tokens, making it one of the most anticipated airdrops in this year's Solana ecosystem.
This indicates that the long-term interest in ME is quite limited. Most participants see this as a short-term liquidity opportunity rather than a long-term investment.
ME price prediction: Is it possible to return to $5?
If the current downtrend continues, the price of Magic Eden may test the key support level of $4. Falling below this level could lead to strong selling pressure, and the price would continue to drop.
However, the $4 level could be a solid support point to prevent further price declines in the short term.
Conversely, if there is positive momentum, ME could rebound and test the resistance level of $4.69. If it exceeds that level, the price could rise to $5.10. In this case, if buying activity increases, ME could rise to $5.72. These resistance levels will play a crucial role in determining whether ME can recover and maintain strong growth momentum.
The price of ME rising to 10 USDT is a psychological price point for many community members, but since Binance listed ME, its price has peaked at 8 USDT, and while OKX opened above 22 USDT, most retail investors couldn't sell at that price. Whether ME can rise again essentially hinges on whether Magic Eden is worth a 10 billion valuation.
Before ME's launch, if calculated at the pre-market price, Magic Eden's circulating market cap had already surpassed the FDV of other NFT trading markets like Tensor and Blur. From the data, Magic Eden does not have a market share in Solana NFT that matches the top-ranked Tensor; however, in terms of support and development for multi-chain NFTs, Magic Eden has performed well, especially having an absolute leading advantage in the Bitcoin NFT and rune trading markets.
At the same time, many opinions will compare ME with the TEG performance of HYPE and MOVE, arguing that the initial circulation of ME is even smaller than HYPE and is also a highly profitable project; in terms of exchange support, ME is similar to MOVE and has also been listed on major exchanges such as Binance and Upbit. Therefore, many users believe that ME's price should at least stay above 10 USDT for a considerable time.
However, the current situation for Magic Eden is not as optimistic as described. In terms of product, the rise and fall of a trading market always relies on the development of its ecosystem, and the current Bitcoin ecosystem is in a bear market. None of the top 10 NFT projects by market cap is a Bitcoin NFT (Bitcoin Puppets ranks 12th), and in the currently hot Solana market, its share is still inferior to Tensor, making it difficult to support a valuation of 10 billion dollars.
Based on the price performance of past airdrop projects this year, the opening price is usually the peak, and after market sentiment fades, it is challenging to have a second wave of momentum. MOVE has also fallen back to around 0.68 USDT, with FDV dropping to around 6.7 billion dollars, so it remains challenging for ME to raise its peak again.