Bitcoin shows stable growth, trading within the range of $101,800–$102,600. To justify the forecast, it is necessary to analyze key technical indicators that will help better understand market dynamics:
1. Moving Averages (MA):
- Short-term MA (50-day): The price of Bitcoin is above the 50-day average, confirming the current upward trend.
- Long-term MA (200-day): Bitcoin has significantly diverged from the 200-day average, indicating a strong bullish phase and a lack of signs of a long-term correction.
2. Relative Strength Index (RSI):
- The RSI on the daily timeframe is around 70, signaling overbought conditions for the asset. This may indicate the likelihood of a short-term correction, especially upon reaching resistance at $105,000.
- However, on the weekly timeframe, the RSI indicates healthy bullish activity, confirming the potential for continued growth.
3. Trading Volume:
- Volumes remain high, especially at levels above $100,000, indicating strong interest from both institutional and retail investors. This confirms the resilience of the upward trend.
4. Fibonacci Levels:
- Considering previous highs and lows of the current cycle, important levels are:
- 0.618 ($105,000) — the nearest resistance.
- 0.786 ($112,000–$115,000) — the next growth target.
5. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
- The MACD line is above the signal line, confirming bullish momentum.
- However, the histogram is beginning to narrow, which may signal a decrease in bullish momentum and the need for local consolidation.
Forecast based on analysis:
1. Short-term (until the end of December):
- The nearest target is $105,000. Overcoming this level will open the way to $110,000–$115,000.
- A local correction to $99,500–$100,000 is possible if the price encounters resistance at $105,000 and volumes begin to decline.
2. Medium-term (1–2 months):
- If the current dynamics continue, Bitcoin may reach the range of $120,000–$125,000, especially if fundamental factors (demand through ETFs and accumulation by whales) remain.
3. Risks:
- A high RSI warns of short-term overbought conditions, while declining volumes may signal potential consolidation before a new breakout.
- Any significant macroeconomic news, such as an interest rate hike by the Fed, could create pressure on the market.
Thus, the current situation according to indicators confirms continued growth, but one should be prepared for short-term pullbacks. It is recommended to use levels of $99,500 for potential purchases, and $105,000 for profit-taking or confirmation of new momentum.