Investment research firm BCA Research recently stated in a report that if the U.S. economy does enter a recession in 2025, the U.S. stock market and Bitcoin are likely to suffer heavy blows. However, Matrixport is optimistic, stating that due to various favorable factors, Bitcoin is expected to break through $160,000 next year. (Background: Is the U.S. economy in a severe recession? Analysts: The surge in bankruptcies is reminiscent of the financial crisis) (Additional context: CPI meets expectations) The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates next week with over 98% probability, leading to a surge in the stock market, but analysts express three concerns: a potential significant correction of 20% within six months. Although the Federal Reserve has repeatedly emphasized this year that inflation control has been effective and the door to rate cuts is gradually opening, many experts still warn of the risk of a recession in the U.S. economy next year due to labor market pressures, potential economic policies since Trump took office, the accumulation of bubbles in the U.S. stock market, and the instability of global political and economic situations. BCA Research: If the U.S. economy enters recession, the U.S. stock market and Bitcoin will face significant setbacks. In this context, investment research firm BCA Research recently stated in a report that if the U.S. economy does enter a recession in 2025, the U.S. stock market and Bitcoin are likely to suffer heavy blows. BCA Research first pointed out that the price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 index has already reached 23 times, far exceeding the average level from 2015 to 2019; therefore, once the U.S. economy enters a recession, the U.S. stock market will bear the huge pressure that comes with it. BCA Research predicts: The S&P 500 index will drop to a low of 4,197 points in November, although there will be a rebound, it will ultimately close at 4,452 points, resulting in an annual decline of 31%. At the same time, in the context of a recession, the market's enthusiasm for AI stocks will gradually cool, while stocks in the consumer staples, healthcare, and utilities sectors will remain relatively resilient. Additionally, once a recession occurs, BCA Research states that Bitcoin will also struggle to escape impact and cannot serve as a safe haven: Bitcoin will not attract inflows of safe-haven funds; instead, it will be closely related to the fluctuations of the stock market, and it is expected to plummet to $45,000 by year-end. Ultimately, the market will prove that Bitcoin is merely a high-risk investment. However, as a recession approaches, the safe-haven characteristics of gold will be sought after in the market; BCA Research expects gold to increase by 10% over the entire year next year, providing security for investors holding gold. Matrixport: Bitcoin expected to reach $160,000 next year. However, if the U.S. successfully achieves a soft landing, Matrixport released an investment research report on Twitter yesterday (13th) stating that due to multiple favorable influences from U.S. regulation and institutional adoption, Bitcoin will exhibit different volatility characteristics compared to previous cycles next year; BTC will no longer experience sudden downward corrections of dozens of points but will instead have an upside potential of 60%, with a possible peak of $160,000: As institutional adoption increases, regulatory clarity improves, speculative behavior rises, and use cases continue to expand, Bitcoin will drive the cryptocurrency market towards maturity. Institutions that actively embrace Bitcoin have already achieved substantial returns through investing in ETFs, which will incentivize them to continue increasing their Bitcoin allocation in 2025. Market dynamics are changing; unlike the drastic corrections of -80% seen in previous cycles, Bitcoin's expanding base of dip buyers and institutional support have reduced the likelihood of significant price corrections. We predict that Bitcoin is expected to reach $160,000 in 2025, representing a 60% increase; this target aligns with the market's ongoing demand for Bitcoin ETFs, the evolution of the overall economic environment, and the enhancement of global liquidity. Meanwhile, Matrixport also states that next year, Bitcoin's adoption rate is expected to surpass the milestone of 8%, gradually transitioning from a once niche asset to a core component of the global financial market. Therefore, Matrixport suggests allocating Bitcoin at a ratio of 1.55% to achieve a diversified investment portfolio. The analysis reports from both firms show significant differences concerning Bitcoin's price, indicating that the U.S. economy currently still has a very large influence on Bitcoin, and BTC's risk investment attributes currently remain strong; whether it can serve as a safe haven remains to be seen. Related reports: Ukraine plans to legalize cryptocurrency in Q1 next year, Argentina's president plans to open up free trading of Bitcoin. In less than a year, BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF has surpassed its gold fund in scale; bank analysts predict a further acceleration in institutional adoption next year. The Bank of Japan is expected to show a 'tendency not to raise interest rates' next week, continuing the yen's arbitrage trading space. Will Bitcoin continue to rise? "What will happen if the U.S. economy enters recession next year? Analysts: Bitcoin may plummet to $45,000, and the U.S. stock market may plummet 30%..." This article was first published by BlockTempo (the most influential blockchain news media).

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