Good evening, brothers and sisters! Last night, Bitcoin reached $102,500 when the US stock market opened, just touching the previously mentioned resistance level, and then corrected to around $99,200 in the morning, where it is a key support level.
Ethereum is still under pressure from the $4,000 mark, and this morning the price pulled back to around $3,835 support level.
Market Hotspots and Positive News:
The Trump family project has recently invested in ETH, LINK, and AAVE, attracting market attention.
Later, Grayscale will include OP and LDO in new investment products.
ENS, which is favored by Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin, is also considered to have long-term development potential.
Difference Between Strong Coins and Weak Coins:
During sharp market declines, quality projects can usually rebound quickly and even set new highs; however, those that follow trends or are inherently weak struggle to return to their starting points, let alone reach new highs. In contrast, strong coins attract more funds during market corrections, often resulting in significant rebounds.
Weekend Market and Expectations: As the weekend approaches, the retail investors' speculation will dominate the market trend. If there is no new news impacting the market, it is highly probable that the market will not decline too much. Next, we need to pay close attention to the Federal Reserve's meeting decisions next week, with the market generally expecting that the Fed may lower interest rates by 25 basis points, with a high probability of rate cuts. Additionally, Japan's meeting on the 19th seems to have been postponed until March next year, and if this postponement news is true, then a reduction strategy may need to be considered during the March to May period.
ETH Fund Flow and Market Trend:
ETH has seen a net inflow for 14 consecutive days, with a significant amount of funds, but the price has remained in a fluctuating range. Analysis suggests that ETH is currently in a turnover period, with significant market divergence, old investors beginning to exit, and off-site funds gradually entering the market.
Referring to the market trend after the BTC ETF launch, a similar turnover period usually indicates that the price is about to explode. BTC rose 70% after the ETF turnover period ended. Therefore, ETH's price is expected to rise after the turnover period ends.
BTC ETF and Market Behavior: Currently, the BTC ETF continues to attract capital inflows, but the market price is still fluctuating, indicating that there are still divergences among on-site investors. Old investors are selling off, while institutions like MicroStrategy and Wall Street are continuously buying. The end of the turnover period usually signifies that the market is about to enter a new upward phase.
Market Trend and Investment Strategy: For investors who insist on holding altcoins, historical data shows a relatively high risk-reward ratio. The current ETH exchange rate has fallen to the early 2021 level and has just begun to rebound. The market capitalization share of Bitcoin has also returned to the early 2021 level and has begun to decline, with volume showing reversal signals. At the same time, over $2 billion of leveraged funds in the market have been liquidated, and the current market atmosphere indicates that we are entering a bull market starting point.
Although some people choose to sell at the top, this behavior can be understood, as many investors also chose to sell at the top at the end of 2020. However, history has shown that selling at the top is not the best strategy. When the market enters the FOMO stage, these investors will pour into the market like new retail investors.
Stick to the Strategy: For investors who choose to hold on, patience is the most important thing. There is no need to worry about the gains of others' assets; the coins that may have a smaller current increase may achieve greater returns in the future. Frequently switching positions and blindly chasing increases usually yields poor results. Sticking to holding is the most reliable strategy.
DeFi and Ethereum's Independent Market: From the recent performance of DeFi projects, including Trump's investments in LINK and AAVE, it can be expected that Ethereum is likely to lead an independent market trend. This also explains why Ethereum has always been regarded as the core platform in the DeFi field. Many top DeFi projects have already been built within the Ethereum ecosystem, and the decentralization and security of Ethereum are particularly important for DeFi projects and large institutions.
Future Outlook and Strategy: The Trump family has already begun to lay out their plans in DeFi projects, which also demonstrates the potential of the crypto market. Although he has not officially taken office yet, the policy outlook for the crypto market remains optimistic. If Trump further supports cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology after taking office, the market's imaginative space will be very broad.
The second half of the month is approaching, and Christmas is near, many institutions also need to settle annual rates and so forth, so currently, there may be a demand for profit-taking at the high levels of Bitcoin. Although the news every day is about BlackRock's continuous buying, it does not mean that the market will continue to rise. It is a potential upward momentum; the fact is that there is continuous buying, but the price is still oscillating at a high level, indicating that there are still significant profit-taking positions around 100,000 in the short term. Therefore, during the adjustment period, when Ethereum reaches 3500 and Solana around 200, do not hesitate to add some positions!
