After the US released the November CPI data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December has reached 98.6%. If the interest rate is really cut, the liquidity of the market will definitely increase, which is good news for the cryptocurrency circle. Both mainstream and altcoins will have a large room for growth.
Last night, Bitcoin surged to 102,500 as U.S. stocks fell, and then fell back below $100,000. Currently, 102,000 is a strong pressure point, and it takes a lot of effort to break through and stand firm.
In addition, the US Coinbase platform will soon launch pnut coins, and Squirrel Coin has also risen by more than 30% in 24 hours. I have said before that Squirrel Coin may have another wave of popularity. After it is launched on CB, we can look forward to its performance.
As for today's BTC market: From the K-line, the 1-hour, 4-hour and 12-hour cycles all show a downward trend, and the daily line also appears a bit weak. Today's pressure level is $102,000, and the support level is $97,000.
Someone asked me whether Bitcoin would drop sharply during Christmas?
I think the possibility of a big drop is not high.
The recent declines were all the kind of "pin-poking and contract-exploding" wash-out market. Judging from the capital distribution chart of the contract, the main force will "explode" whichever side has the most leverage, which can basically be predicted accurately.
Through these operations, the main force is cleaning out some chips with excessive leverage and lack of confidence, preparing for the next wave of increases.
Judging from the overall trend, we are now in the middle and late stages of the bull market, and the market is still waiting for Trump to fulfill his election promises after taking office on January 20.
As long as the market consensus is not broken and there is no major negative news, Bitcoin's upward trend should continue.
According to ETF data, Bitcoin spot ETF had a net inflow of US$604 million yesterday, and Ethereum spot ETF also had an inflow of US$276 million.
This week, Ethereum's spot ETF inflows hit a new high, indicating that large U.S. institutions are increasing their purchases of Ethereum and funds are flowing into the Ethereum ecosystem.
Ethereum also saw a compensatory rally yesterday. According to the market trend, it may soon break through the current resistance level. Once it breaks through, the target may reach the previous high of $4,800.
The Trump family bought ETH, LINK, and AAVE through the COW protocol, which also led to a rebound in these projects.
From this wave of increases, we can see that the stronger performing DeFi projects are mainly related to the political situation and compliance policies in the United States.
I feel that Ethereum may have a big surge next, because almost all DeFi projects are based on the Ethereum ecosystem.
Now many large institutions also choose Ethereum as their first choice, such as Coinbase's Base chain.
Overall, the risk of a sharp drop in Bitcoin is not great, and I don't see any reason to sell Bitcoin. Bitcoin is the only large position project suitable for heavy holdings, and there is still a lot of room for future growth.
In terms of operating strategy, I suggest adopting the "barbell strategy".
Most of the positions (80%) can be allocated to mainstream currencies such as BTC, ETH, and SOL, and the remaining small part of the positions (20%) can be allocated to some leading coins and MEME coins.
If you don’t have a lot of money, it is recommended to concentrate your operations, seize big opportunities, give up small risks, and don’t be too diversified. You can concentrate your funds on BTC and MEME coins.
If the amount of funds is relatively large, you can diversify it appropriately and invest in projects in different tracks such as AI, MEME coin, DeFi, RWA, DePin, etc.
Let’s talk about altcoins:
First of all, thank you for pressing PEPU——
Once PEPE's energy and popularity are established, it is really impossible to estimate! The question is, if it didn't sell yesterday, will it still sell now? This is actually a very interesting social experiment.
Most of the previous MEME coins had no actual commercial use or technological innovation, and their value was mainly driven by community enthusiasm, popularity on social media and sense of humor.
But PEPU’s approach is different. It is a second-generation protocol based on PEPE, which already has a brand and audience base. It is equivalent to creating a second-layer protocol for BTC. PEPU can be regarded as the second-layer protocol of PEPE.
Next, continue to observe -
Then let’s take a look at ORDI. A friend in the group specifically asked me for my opinion, so I also said it in the article:
I have to say that the current ORDI scene is very similar to that of 3U. At that time, it was also attacked by a lot of BTC ecosystem "useless theory" and ORDI "garbage theory". I still remember that time, I firmly believed in ORDI and even stayed up late to write a long article of several thousand words. Today, I suddenly found the feeling of ORDI 3U again. I really miss it, haha~
ORDI has fallen less than 3 times from its current peak, which is considered a bull market. Although other coins are rising, if most of your altcoins are at the top of the mountain, even if they have risen now, you may still lose more than 3 times~
When ORDI rose at the end of last year, other currencies were also hovering at low levels. The market has cycles and reincarnations. ORDI may not be in its turn now, but it will reach its high point sooner or later.
Moreover, ORDI's liquidity has always been good. Whether you want to cut or enter the market, large funds can enter and exit freely at any time.
In the BTC ecosystem, I am already free, but seeing ORDI being suppressed like this is really unbearable. I still can't help but want to shout for it, maybe because of my position, or maybe because of my belief in it. In fact, I have always been there!
Is this a missed opportunity now?
If you have missed some investment opportunities in recent months, don't worry, now is still a good time to enter. Here are a few key points you need to pay attention to:
1. Why did you miss the opportunity?
Many people miss opportunities because their emotions often influence their decisions. For example, in a bull market, when prices rise rapidly, people around them are eager to follow suit and end up buying at the high point. But when prices start to fall back, many people are swayed by panic and quickly sell their assets, ultimately missing out on the potential rise that may follow.
2. The right investment strategy
Don't chase the rise: rushing to buy when you see the price rising is usually very risky. The market does not always rise, and there will usually be a 10%-30% correction. It is safer to wait for the price to fall before considering entering the market.
Build positions in batches: Don’t invest all your money in the market at once, especially when the price is correcting. You can build positions in batches and invest gradually, which can spread the risk. If the price drops by 5%, invest part of it first, and then continue to increase your position when it drops a little more.
Set a stop loss point: Be sure to set a clear stop loss point for yourself to avoid panic selling caused by excessive market fluctuations. This will help you stop loss in time and reduce losses when the market is unfavorable.
3. Why is it not too late now?
Although some people may feel that they have missed the best time to enter the market, it is still a good opportunity. Market funds are still rotating and have not yet fully arrived.
Bitcoin's dominance may continue to decline, and funds will gradually flow to small and medium-sized altcoins. Therefore, the most profitable stage may not have arrived yet, and you still have a chance to catch this wave of market train.
Finally, here are my own thoughts:
The arrival of the alt season does not happen overnight, it usually goes through several stages. Although we have now entered the second stage and the rise of altcoins may be about to begin, there are actually many opportunities waiting for you to seize.
By building positions in batches, avoiding the use of leverage, controlling risks, and developing a clear investment plan, you can seize the most promising investment opportunities in this volatile market.
I solemnly tell you that the keyword for 2024 is: ecological welfare
Runestone, Dog, Pizza, Me, these all started as unexpected gains - seemingly unexpected, but in fact there is a reason.
The performance of inscriptions depends on the strength of the NFT sector. As for runes, there is nothing to say. Just follow Long Yi and you won’t go wrong. OpCat is also my focus, referring to the real mainnet OpCat.
Now that the bull market has arrived, everyone has become impetuous, and it is really difficult to calm down and focus on thinking about one thing.
I hope next year will still be a good time to make money.