The highly anticipated Bitcoin MENA conference was grandly held on December 11, inviting numerous industry leaders to participate. Among them, the founder of the well-known exchange Binance, CZ Zhao Changpeng, also held a fireside chat at the MENA conference on the future development trend of Bitcoin, discussing topics from national strategic reserves to global adoption in international trade, providing a wealth of information.
CZ stated that the value of Bitcoin is not just in its price, but in its practicality. In the future, Bitcoin should not only be used for investment purposes but as currency itself. In the next 10-15 years, the usage scenarios for Bitcoin will become more diverse, and we may even see more countries adopting Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, further driving up the price of Bitcoin.
Recently, the United States led the way in announcing the establishment of a Bitcoin strategic reserve, prompting other small and medium-sized countries to follow suit. CZ highly praised this move by the U.S., stating that countries that take action earlier will benefit more, and also believes this is the most effective asset allocation method. Regarding whether ZG will follow suit, CZ indicated that ZG's policy is currently opaque but does not rule out the possibility of discreet planning. They may have already started actions but have not made them public yet. He also believes that Hong Kong may become a testing ground for ZG's Bitcoin policy, although the current attitude towards cryptocurrency regulation remains conservative.
In terms of cryptocurrency, after experiencing a pullback earlier this week, Bitcoin surged back to the $100,000 mark after the release of the U.S. November CPI annual rate and the November adjusted CPI monthly rate. Around six o'clock this morning, it briefly broke through last week's high of $101,800 before pulling back. As of the time of writing, the price is $100,782, with a 24-hour increase of 4.71%.
Previously, after Bitcoin first broke through the $100,000 mark, it did not stabilize at this level before experiencing a pullback. Therefore, it cannot be said that Bitcoin has confirmed a breakthrough at this historic level. A false breakout in Bitcoin may trigger a weak performance in the cryptocurrency market in the short term, with upward momentum appearing somewhat exhausted. There have also been contrary signals during the day, suggesting that Bitcoin may need some time to consolidate before resuming its upward trend. If it can break through again after the consolidation, there is hope for adjusting the historic high of $104,000.
Bitcoin 4-hour chart
First, based on the Bollinger Bands indicator on the 4H Bitcoin chart, the current price is near the upper band, indicating that the market may be overbought in the short term. If the price continues to struggle to break through the upper band and shows signs of a pullback, it may adjust towards the middle band position. The bandwidth of the Bollinger Bands has slightly expanded, suggesting that market volatility has increased, and larger price fluctuations may be expected in the short term.
Secondly, based on the KDJ indicator on the Bitcoin 4H chart, the current K line value and D line value are above 80 in the overbought area, and may face pullback pressure in the short term. If the J line value continues to fall from the high and crosses below the K line value and D line value forming a death cross, the pullback signal will be clearer.
Finally, based on the MACD indicator on the 4H Bitcoin chart, the DIF line and DEA line are slightly converging near the high level. If a death cross pattern forms, the price may experience a pullback in the short term. The MACD red histogram is also gradually shortening, indicating that bullish strength is weakening. Currently, the MACD is above the zero axis, and the bullish trend has not been completely broken, but caution is still needed for adjustment signals.
Comprehensive analysis shows that the current trend indicates a certain risk of pullback for Bitcoin at high levels, especially when the MACD shows a death cross and KDJ is overbought and retreating. The price may test the middle band of the Bollinger Bands or even lower levels. If the price can effectively stabilize above the upper band of the Bollinger Bands and the MACD red histogram continues to expand, the upward trend will continue.
In summary, the great sage offers the following suggestions for reference: Buy Bitcoin on a pullback to $100,300 - $100,000, with a target of $102,000 - $102,800 and a stop loss at $99,700.
Written at: (2024-12-12, 16:20)
(Written by the Great Sage)
