The adjustments in the market over the past two days are actually quite healthy. Many cryptocurrencies have recorded several times their value over the past month, and a pullback of 30% to 50% is a normal phenomenon at this time. For the subsequent market trends, the following judgments can be made:
Firstly, the first phase of the bull market has already come to an end, and after the adjustments are completed, the market will enter the second phase.
Secondly, the current off-market funds have not yet surged on a large scale, and we are still in a phase of self-indulgence among on-market participants. The rise of many cryptocurrencies is also driven by on-market leverage, thus, it is crucial to clear leverage in the short term.
Thirdly, the duration of the adjustment will not be too long, and the second phase is expected to start before Christmas.
Fourthly, the leading cryptocurrencies in the second phase are likely to be SOL or ETH. Based on personal experience with multiple blockchains, SOL has potential due to its ease of operation, low entry barriers, and a broad base of users, while ETH has a demand for catch-up growth.
Fifthly, the process of clearing leverage in the second phase (spike phenomenon) will be more intense than in the first phase, but the overall upward trend will remain unchanged. Therefore, it is advisable to buy spot at low prices (such as the current timing). After all, frequently using leverage in a bull market will only accelerate one's own demise, and one should not underestimate the risk control capabilities of exchanges.
