Good afternoon, brothers and sisters! Today is Wednesday, and looking back at the market performance in recent days, everyone might feel that the market sentiment is not very optimistic, but the market is still ongoing. Adjust your mindset and keep your momentum!
As the Spring Festival approaches, everyone should work hard to accumulate more resources; the six months after the New Year will be crucial for entering the bull market.
The characteristic of altcoins is their high volatility, surging rapidly when rising, usually outperforming Bitcoin in the short term, and falling just as quickly. Holding altcoins during a correction can be painful, but remember that when the market is rising crazily, it is you altcoin holders who look down on those who only hold Bitcoin! Gains and losses come from the same source.
Currently, I judge that the bull market has just begun.
Although it's unclear whether BTC can rise to 200,000 or 300,000, we know that the bull market has just begun. This round of the bull market will not be dominated by 'old retail investors' as before, but by MicroStrategy, MARA, the US National Reserve, the Russian National Reserve, and various national pension funds.
Macroeconomic environment
This month, there are many positive and negative factors, so everyone should remain cautious. For example, tonight's CPI data, whether MSTR will be included in QQQ, the FASB implementation, the Federal Reserve and Japan's interest rate meetings, and the holiday effect of Christmas, etc.
In January 2025, Trump will take office again. Yesterday, there were reports that Trump hopes to push Bitcoin's price to 150,000 USD early in his term. Considering the expectation of policy easing, this could have a positive impact on the market. Meanwhile, also pay attention to interest rate cuts and economic data, especially the interest rate meeting on January 29, with the official inauguration date being January 20.
After Bitcoin and Ethereum have adjusted properly, one can gradually buy altcoins in batches.
After the significant drop on December 9, the market is gradually recovering. Coins that did not continue to drop yesterday quickly rebounded and performed well, especially those in popular sectors. Pay attention to the strong coins in the first wave of the rise and those that show resilience during the second wave of correction!
1. Achieve zero cost: The best operation in a bull market is at zero cost. What is zero cost? For example, buying near COMP71 and rising to 144, when the price pulls back to 140, you sell all your positions, and what’s left is profit. Thus, even if the market adjusts, you won't panic and make wrong moves out of anxiety. Gains are profit, and declines do not hurt the principal; that’s the advantage of zero cost.
2. Don't sell all your quality altcoins: Low-priced altcoins usually won't give you a second chance to re-enter unless a black swan event occurs. For example, FET at 1.3, DASH at 35, PEPE at 115, and LPT at 11 dollars; unless there is significant bad news, such low prices are unlikely to occur again. If you sold them last week, you really missed a good opportunity. As long as the coins you hold have potential, they will rise in the bull market sooner or later. To avoid 'selling too early,' it's best to hold at zero cost, learn to sell in batches, and retain a certain position.
3. Clearing strategy: When clearing positions, do not sell everything at once; you should first clear half and then gradually clear the remaining positions. No one can accurately predict the market's peak, and common selling signals include: frequent trending topics, altcoin speculation indexes hitting historical highs, etc. Although you may miss the best selling point, these signals usually indicate that the market is approaching its peak.
4. Execution is crucial: In a bull market, the hardest part is not finding opportunities but sticking to the execution of strategies. A bull market requires precise execution and a keen sense of market trends.
Macroeconomic data:
This week's macroeconomic data is crucial, as several key inflation data points will directly affect interest rate cut expectations.
The CPI data will be released tonight, and the PPI data will follow on Thursday. The market generally predicts that inflation will rise, but this will not change the established path of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in December.
After a continuous 72-hour decline in the market, there is a high possibility of a rebound in the short term. Just like a bowstring being pulled tight, there will inevitably be a strong rebound.
In January 2025, after Trump takes office, he may drive the price of Bitcoin to 150,000 USD, which could also lead to a rise in ETH and other altcoins.
Pay attention to changes in interest rates and the economic situation, especially the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on January 29.
After the significant drop on December 9, the market is gradually recovering, and coins that had previously increased significantly, such as SOL, DOGE, and PEPE, have sell order opportunities.
