The bull market is still on, the trend remains unchanged

Tonight at 21:30, the market will focus on the release of the U.S. November CPI data. Investors generally expect inflation to rise, but whether this data release will affect the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut decision in December remains an open question.

Many market analysts and media have previously suggested that the CPI data could become a key factor in determining the Federal Reserve's policy, especially regarding the interest rate cut decision in December. From the current market expectations, the broad inflation data for October is 2.6%, while the November data is expected to rise to 2.7%. The Cleveland Fed's expectations also point to 2.7%, with the month-on-month rate adjusted from 0.2% to 0.3%. The only relatively stable factor is core inflation, which is expected to remain largely unchanged.

This expectation of inflation data has triggered a risk-averse sentiment among investors. The market's concerns are mainly focused on the possibility that if the Federal Reserve fails to further cut interest rates in December, the current loose economic environment will be called into question, or even reversed. This has also raised concerns about market liquidity, especially given the currently slow pace of economic recovery and the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%.

Similar risk-averse sentiments were also observed before the CPI announcements in August and September this year, during which BTC prices dropped by 6% and 4%, respectively. However, risk aversion is merely risk aversion, not a top escape, and is more of a procedural nature.

According to the current tone of the Federal Reserve, the CPI data itself is unlikely to have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve's policy. The Federal Reserve places more emphasis on core PCE data, especially in a situation where core CPI has remained almost unchanged, it is expected that the Federal Reserve will still maintain its interest rate cut decision in December. Additionally, the current rise in the unemployment rate has already provided the Federal Reserve with sufficient reasons to lower interest rates, so regardless of whether the November CPI meets market expectations, the December rate cut seems to be a foregone conclusion.

Although tonight's CPI data may trigger short-term market risk-averse sentiment, in the long run, the Federal Reserve's rate cut path is becoming increasingly clear, and investors need not worry excessively.

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