I saw many people liquidating their positions yesterday, claiming to lock in profits. Personally, I did not run away, but selectively added some positions. I believe as long as Bitcoin does not substantially drop below the 90,000 low from the day before yesterday, there is no need to panic; it’s all technical pullbacks. In fact, bull markets have many sharp drops; just take a look:
In 2017, there were multiple pullbacks, with Bitcoin's maximum pullback at 40%; in 2020, there were multiple pullbacks, with Bitcoin's maximum pullback at 30%;
If we want to rally, we just need a catalyst to re-enter the 100k range! I secretly hope Bitcoin can touch 200k next year, but it's difficult unless Trump quickly fulfills his promise to include Bitcoin in the national reserves and buy a lot! Therefore, the bullish outlook remains unchanged; at least we should touch 150k, right? Above is today's psychological massage; up, up, up.
Speaking of the daily MA30 for BTC moving up again, it's getting closer to the coin price, currently showing support at an upward position. The time for a sideways base is about to appear; we can only continue to wait. If you missed the 60k and 70k, then now is one of the two big opportunities, which is the successful bottoming of MA30 followed by a breakout from narrow fluctuations. This cycle might take a bit longer.
Actually, what I want to say is that BTC hasn't really dropped much; the so-called crash exists only in altcoins. When you only hold BTC, you'll find the volatility isn't large! Today's intraday resistance is 98,500, and support is 94,000 USD.
On Monday and Tuesday, there were declines, and many people saw 80k, 70k, and even some saw 30k. Goodness, if the market were dominated by you, it would be a pump and dump. Tonight's CPI, I'm still betting on a rally. The logic remains the same as last Friday's Non-Farm Payroll. The first push is strong, then it weakens, and rarely does it fall continuously for more than 72 hours. If there's a rebound today, we should short again, and take profits in time, with a smaller position than Monday and Tuesday.
Recently, the market has been pulling back, and many people are starting to panic. Many 'foolish whale' friends around me are asking if they can still hold their spot. Is the bull market really over? Meanwhile, those old investors remain as steady as a mountain.
After all, Bitcoin hitting 100k and the six-figure psychological barrier inevitably leads to a slight pullback in altcoins, which is to be expected. A pullback is actually part of the market's self-adjustment; if this wave had no pullback and just went up, I would start to worry if we had reached the 'tail risk' stage.
Most altcoins have pulled back; keep a close eye on those few quality altcoin spot assets. The opportunity to buy at the bottom is here; it just depends on whether you dare to pull the trigger.
1. The chips of the leading casinos (eth, sol, sui).
2. There are core service providers with key positions in the casino industry chain, and it’s best if the coin price can be linked to cash flow.
3. Meme coins that have the strongest consensus and are seen as benchmarks in the meme coin sector (only Doge and Pepe).
In secondary selection, avoiding pitfalls is more important than making the right choice.
Please don’t buy those new application coins that you don’t even use or don’t even know what the product is, or those dead gamefi coins for games you don’t even play, or the pseudo-meme coins in the ton ecosystem. You get trapped every day and think the market maker will pull it up; otherwise, how can they sell? But actually, after the market maker has trapped you all, they go launch the next project; do you think they will pull the price back up to rescue you? Be kinder to yourself; if you can choose a simple investment mode, don't choose the hell mode.
This wave of decline cleared 2 billion in leverage, restoring normal funding rates for altcoins, while also causing so many to exit, intensifying the divergence. From the perspective of the market maker, this is good operation. The effect is in place.
For those who have already sold at the top, it's not a bad thing; taking profits in time brings peace of mind. Those who remain choose high risk for high reward. If you can't hold, you won't be rich. This fits perfectly here—only those who stay might reap significant multiples. Those stories of crypto wealth we’ve heard, which one isn't from someone tough who held on for big multiples? Have you heard of getting rich from short-term trading?
Anyway, I believe the next market trend is the final stage of this bull market: accelerated momentum. The decisive battle is just a month or so away. I wish everyone prosperity.
